Gold first breaks through $4600, the Federal Reserve signals behind the historic highs of gold and silver

Spot gold and silver hit new all-time highs today, with gold breaking through the $4600/oz mark for the first time, and silver reaching $83.9/oz. This is not just a simple numerical breakthrough but a direct response to the market’s shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies. From weak U.S. employment data to ongoing geopolitical instability, precious metals are becoming the preferred safe-haven assets for investors seeking risk mitigation.

The Macro Background Behind the Breakthrough

The simultaneous rise of gold and silver is no coincidence. According to the latest reports, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 50,000 in December, below the market expectation of 60,000, signaling clear economic slowdown. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, below the expected 4.5%, the true implication of this data warrants reflection— the decline in unemployment is not because more people found jobs, but because some unemployed individuals have exited the labor force, revealing underlying labor market concerns.

Major Shift in Federal Reserve Policy Expectations

This weak employment data directly altered market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policies. The market generally believes that the decline in unemployment “closes the door on a rate cut in January.” The Fed is likely to maintain the current stance, implying a pause in the rate-cut cycle. However, this seemingly hawkish decision has instead driven up precious metal prices—market participants anticipate two more rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining time of 2026, with long-term easing expectations supporting the rise in gold and silver.

Strong Performance of Precious Metals This Week

This breakout marks the climax of a bullish rally over the past week. According to recent data, spot gold has gained over 4% this week, with a total increase of more than $177; spot silver has risen nearly 10%, with a total increase of over $7. Gold surged nearly $30 after the December 10 non-farm payroll data release, fully demonstrating the market’s safe-haven response to weak data.

Market Reactions and New Trading Opportunities

The strong performance of precious metals has also attracted new market participants. According to the latest news, Binance has officially launched perpetual contracts for gold and silver, marking the first deep entry of mainstream crypto trading platforms into traditional commodities, signifying further blurring of boundaries between crypto and traditional finance in 2026. The launch of this new product could bring additional liquidity and participants to the precious metals market.

Continued Support from Geopolitical Factors

Besides expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical instability also supports precious metal prices. In an environment of increasing global uncertainty, gold and silver’s appeal as traditional safe-haven assets continues to grow. The resonance of these multiple factors makes the breakthrough to historic highs inevitable.

Reasonable Expectations for Future Trends

Based on current fundamentals, gold and silver are likely to remain strong in the short term. Next Tuesday, the U.S. will release the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could significantly influence market sentiment and determine the trend of gold and silver prices over the coming week. If CPI data continues to show weakness, it may further reinforce market expectations for Fed rate cuts, pushing precious metals higher. The speeches of Fed officials will also be a focus for the market.

From a technical perspective, both gold and silver have broken important resistance levels, with short-term trends leaning bullish. However, extreme volatility may increase, especially around major economic data releases.

Summary

Gold’s first breakthrough above $4600 and silver’s record high reflect deep market concerns about the global economic outlook. Weak U.S. employment data, shifts in Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical instability have jointly driven the rally in safe-haven assets. This is not only a victory for the precious metals market but also a new starting point for the integration of traditional finance and crypto markets—Binance’s launch of precious metals contracts is a testament to this. For investors, understanding the macro logic behind these price movements is crucial, rather than blindly chasing highs. Next week’s CPI data will be a key catalyst for the future trajectory of precious metals.