PEPE surges 65% behind the scenes: When "smart money" starts betting on Meme, is it a bubble upgrade or a paradigm shift?

As leverage and consensus become the new narrative, the valuation logic of Meme coins is quietly being rewritten by institutions.
In the past week, the spotlight in the crypto market was stolen by a frog. PEPE skyrocketed 65% against the trend amid Bitcoin's pullback and Ethereum's weakness, with its on-chain open interest reaching a historic peak of 75 trillion tokens at one point. This is not retail frenzy—data shows a large influx of high-leverage positions into this token born from a frog meme.

The "Meme season" seems to be ringing again. On the BSC chain, a Meme coin called "I'm coming" broke through $20 million in market cap within 24 hours, with a daily increase of over 63%. Meme communities on Ethereum, Solana, Base, and other public chains are reactivating, with discussion heat rising sharply.

But this time, the story has a subtle difference. Leverage funds, technical analysis, institutional-level narratives—these traditional financial market terms are being skillfully applied to Meme coins once considered "pure gambling." Is this the start of a new experiment, or a prelude to a more dangerous bubble?

1. Data Decryption: Who is Driving PEPE?
PEPE's rise is not without clues. On-chain data shows its open interest peaked in early January, with a large number of high-leverage positions quietly accumulating before the price started to move.
• "This isn't retail behavior," independent analyst Tom Wong pointed out, "75 trillion in open contracts requires professional fund management and risk control, which ordinary investors find hard to do."
• This phenomenon is not new. Early 2024, when Dogecoin bottomed around $0.06, also saw a surge in open interest by 300%. Three months later, DOGE hit $0.22, a gain of over 260%.
• PEPE's technical chart is also "perfect": the price broke out of a multi-month descending wedge, with the key support at $0.0000040 tested 8 times. Volume expanded during rallies and contracted during pullbacks—classic signs of institutional accumulation.
• "Meme coins are becoming 'institutionalized'," said analyst at crypto hedge fund Pantera Capital in a recent report. "When hedge funds start trading Meme coins with derivatives, and technical analysis becomes effective on these tokens, we may need to redefine this asset class."

2. Ecosystem Evolution: From DOGE to PEPE, Three Generations of Meme
The development of Meme coins has gone through three distinct stages:
• First Generation: DOGE – Born in 2013 as a joke, later propelled by Elon Musk to become a phenomenon token. Its core is "community faith" and "celebrity effect."
• Second Generation: SHIB – Exploded in the 2021 bull market, attempting to shed the "pure Meme" label by building a "decentralized ecosystem" (ShibaSwap, Shibarium, etc.) and moving toward "usefulness."
• Third Generation: PEPE – Returning to Meme essence but adding mature financial tools and trading strategies. Leverage, futures, technical analysis are standard, with the community proficient in financial play while maintaining Meme culture.
"SHIB tries to become serious, but PEPE tells us that admitting you're here to gamble is actually a form of sincerity," said CryptoKale, a well-known Meme coin researcher. "The new generation of traders no longer needs a 'use case' cover—they directly play with liquidity, volatility, and sentiment."
This shift is especially evident at the public chain level. Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, Base, and others have spawned their own top Meme coins. The Meme ecosystem across chains resembles an arms race, becoming a key indicator of chain activity and community cohesion.

3. Risk Structure: The Leverage Tower of Babel
• Behind PEPE's frenzy, risks are also accumulating. Data shows about 60% of its open contracts are over 20x leverage. This structure is like a castle built on quicksand—huge gains during rallies, but once the trend reverses, chain liquidations could cause a free fall.
• "The current social media sentiment index has reached 94 (out of 100), close to the peak level of Dogecoin in May 2021," warned Joe Vezzani, CEO of data platform LunarCrush. "Historically, when Meme coin sentiment hits such extremes, it often signals a short-term top."
• External risks cannot be ignored. The upcoming January FOMC meeting, uncertainties around Trump’s crypto policies, and macro black swan events could burst the Meme bubble.
• More fundamentally, Meme coins lack the intrinsic value anchors of traditional assets. "Their value is entirely based on collective belief, and belief is the most volatile thing in the world," said behavioral finance professor Richard Peterson. "Once newer, more interesting Memes appear, funds will migrate without hesitation."

4. Investment Logic: How to Dance with Meme?
1. For investors wanting to join the game, strategies must be extremely clear and cautious:
• Top-tier strategy: Focus on proven top Meme coins like DOGE, SHIB, PEPE. They have the best liquidity and strongest consensus, making them "relatively safe." Consider gradual accumulation during deep dips, e.g., DOGE below $0.12, SHIB below $0.000007.
• Public chain strategy: Instead of directly buying high-risk Meme coins, invest in their underlying chain tokens like SOL, BNB, ETH. The Meme craze boosts these chains’ trading volume, users, and attention, offering a more stable value capture.
• Lottery strategy: If chasing new Meme coins, treat it as "lottery buying." Limit position size to no more than 5% of total portfolio, with strict stop-loss (e.g., -30%). Take profits quickly and only continue playing with gains.
Strict rules: Never use leverage, never trust "scientist calls," never chase highs during FOMO, and never invest funds that affect your life.

5. Future Scenarios: Guessing the Endgame of Meme Coins
The future of Meme coins may follow three paths:
• Scenario 1: Cyclical Asset – Meme coins become the crypto market's "volatility providers," performing periodically during mid and late bull phases. Each frenzy leaves chaos behind, only to return in the next cycle. This is the most likely scenario.
• Scenario 2: Mainstream Asset – A few top Meme coins (like DOGE) gain recognition through ETFs and other mainstream financial products, becoming part of alternative asset allocations. This requires regulatory breakthroughs and institutional endorsement, with lower probability but possible.
• Scenario 3: Bubble Burst – Regulatory crackdown or a catastrophic collapse destroys market confidence, causing Meme culture to fade from crypto mainstream. Given their resilient community, this scenario has the lowest probability.

"No matter the outcome, Meme coins have proven that narratives and communities in the digital age are a form of asset," summarized a16z crypto partner Chris Dixon. "The question isn't whether they have 'intrinsic value,' but whether we are ready to understand this new form of value."

As PEPE's candlestick chart begins to be taken seriously by technical analysts, hedge funds leverage Meme coins, and sentiment indices influence decisions— the game rules for Meme coins have changed. This is no longer a playground for amateurs but a new table for professional gamblers.

The surge of frog PEPE is just the beginning. With more institutional funds and financial tools entering this space, Meme coin volatility will intensify, narratives will become more complex, and risks and opportunities will be amplified. The only constant is: in this game of pure emotion and liquidity, those who leave last are always the ones paying.

Markets reward narratives, but they reward clarity even more. In the frenzy of Meme, is your position fuel for emotion or a rational bet? Remember, in crypto markets, most profits come from patience and catching a few key trends, not frequent trading on every hot spot. Meme market moves fast—faster than you think. When everyone is talking on the streets, it’s usually the end.

6. If you’re really itching to trade, you can place your orders and then forget about them completely.
General principle: Treat Meme coin investing as "lottery" or "risk hedging," not "value investing." Limit positions to no more than 5% of total funds. Focus your main energy and capital on the value discovery and trend strategies we discussed earlier.

Option A: Focus on absolute leaders (moderate odds, higher probability)
1. Split 5% into two parts.
2. Use limit orders: place buy orders at DOGE $0.10-0.12, SHIB $0.000006-0.000007.
3. If filled, set stop-loss at 20% below buy price.
Logic: Bet on the return of the old kings. They have the strongest survival ability and brand effect, and will perform in a bull market.
Risk: Long-term consolidation, very low capital efficiency.

Option B: Chase hot new Meme coins (high odds, very low probability)
1. Split 5% into three parts.
2. Never chase highs. Only pick 1-2 new Meme coins with strong communities and trading depth (not PEPE or already surged coins).
3. During the first deep correction after a volume surge (-30% or more), invest the first 50U. Set strict stop-loss at -30%.
4. Take profits quickly and use gains to continue playing.
Logic: Play for ultra-high elasticity. Similar to the performance of dynamic BSC coins.
Risk: Highest risk of zeroing out, liquidity may vanish instantly.

Option C: Indirect participation via mainstream tokens (lowest risk)
Avoid directly buying Meme coins. Use this part of funds to increase holdings of SOL or BNB.
Logic: Meme hype will bring huge trading activity, gas fees, and attention to the underlying chains, directly benefiting chain tokens. This is a safer, more sustainable way to capture value.

Absolute prohibitions:
Trust any "wealth code" or "scientist calls."
Chase high on the day of rapid rise or during extreme FOMO (e.g., social sentiment index 94).
Use leverage or funds affecting your life.

7. Final Advice and Mindset Management
Currently, it’s strongly recommended to stay on the sidelines.
• The timing isn’t right: a sustainable Meme boom requires BTC, ETH, and other core assets to have clearly exited a bull phase and entered a consolidation, with abundant market liquidity. Conditions are not yet fully met.
• The risk/reward ratio is too low: PEPE and similar tokens have already surged significantly in the short term, with poor risk/return. DOGE and SHIB are still struggling at the bottom, with unknown restart timing.
• Protect your principal: in early bull markets, safeguarding core positions (BTC, ETH, quality altcoins like UNI) is more important than chasing high-risk volatility.

Please note: This content is compiled from public market analysis and historical data, intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile; any investment decision should be based on your own research.