A Polymarket trader made $106,000 in profit within 30 days

Low win rate.
High returns.
This is not luck—it's the power of probability.

Let's break down the trading logic of this trader sb911 👇

Behind seemingly contradictory data lies the core truth of prediction market trading. Traders with low win rates can make money primarily through managing the return on each individual trade. Each bet's final profit depends on the combination of odds and position size. As a decentralized on-chain prediction market, Polymarket offers high liquidity and flexible odds settings, providing ample opportunities for traders skilled in calculating expected returns.

This case reflects a phenomenon: in prediction markets, accurate probability assessment is more important than a high win rate. Traders don't need to win most of their bets; they just need to place bets on key trades, choose appropriate sizes, and grasp the odds well. Even if they only win 2 out of 5 times, as long as those 2 wins are sufficiently large, the annualized return can far exceed traditional assets.

This is also why Polymarket and similar on-chain prediction platforms are attracting more professional traders—transparent on-chain data, permissionless trading, and 24/7 liquidity make probability arbitrage possible.