#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Weak non-farm payroll data signals a potential rate cut, but why is BTC still hovering around 90,000?

In December, the US added only 50,000 non-farm jobs, a figure far below market expectations. Previous data was also revised downward, clearly indicating that the labor market is cooling down. Logically, this should be good news for risk assets—the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2026 increases. Such a macro backdrop, like a "blonde girl," should directly stimulate Bitcoin to take off. But what’s the reality? The price has been oscillating around $90,945, with gains far below expectations.

There is an interesting contradiction here: weak economic data should favor a long-term bullish outlook, yet Bitcoin spot ETFs have been experiencing continuous net outflows recently, indicating that some institutions are quietly selling above $90,000. On one side, macroeconomic good news is pouring in; on the other, short-term funds are cashing in profits. The market is thus pulled into a strange equilibrium.

On-chain data also reveals clues: the buying and selling power of whales is nearly evenly matched. Bulls are holding firm at around $91,000, preventing a decline, while bears are waiting at higher levels for a correction opportunity. This situation suggests that the market is waiting for a sufficiently significant new signal to break the deadlock created by these conflicting signals. Whether macro rate cuts will dominate or institutional profit-taking pressure will be harder to bear, the upcoming days will reveal the answer.