2026-01-11 17:47:18

What counts as a failed token launch? Consider this benchmark:

Three consecutive days trading below TGE price—that's the red flag right there.

But here's the brutal part: if you're still underwater after 3 years? That's not just a bad launch anymore. The token has become a structural problem. Holders are looking at opportunity costs that can't be ignored, opportunity costs in a space where alternatives constantly emerge. The longer the underperformance persists, the harder the recovery becomes.

It's psychology meets math. Projects failing to reclaim TGE price after years have lost momentum, credibility, and market narrative dominance.

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GigaBrainAnon

· 01-11 18:17

Haven't broken even in 3 years, this is no longer a launch failure, it's simply a garbage project.

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blocksnark

· 01-11 18:16

Haven't broken even in 3 years? That’s not a launch failure; there’s an issue with the project itself.

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ChainSherlockGirl

· 01-11 18:13

Still trading below issuance price after 3 years? That's not failure; it's called "structural tailing off." The wallets of several project teams I've tracked are now dumping aggressively, and the data is right there. Three days of trading below issuance price, so what? The real death signal is when psychological expectations completely collapse. No matter how many storylines there are at that point, they can't save it. I previously analyzed a project where the holder's mindset shifted from "it will rebound" to "what else can I do," and the turning point was right here—opportunity cost kills everything.

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DegenApeSurfer

· 01-11 18:13

If you haven't broken even in 3 years, it's not a failure; it's a scam.

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LiquidatorFlash

· 01-11 18:01

A 3-day dip should serve as a warning, but if you haven't broken even in 3 years, it's time to admit defeat and clear your positions—you can't afford the opportunity cost.

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