2026-01-11 16:25:04

There's an interesting phenomenon worth paying close attention to.

Whenever the founder of a major publicly listed company posts a Bitcoin-related update, the subsequent market trend tends to follow a certain pattern—this is no coincidence. According to historical data, within 24 hours of such announcements, BTC volatility tends to increase by an average of 3-3.5%. But there's a catch: in most cases, the price initially drops sharply before bouncing back. Essentially, it's a typical manipulation tactic to shake out weak hands through news-driven price swings.

Looking further out to 72 hours, the trend becomes more apparent. Historically, about 7 similar events have occurred, with 5 of them ending in gains. The underlying logic is simple—after institutions distribute their holdings, other funds follow suit, and the market naturally moves upward.

This time, the situation is a bit special. The tracker emphasizes that miners' annual selling pressure could be reduced to a quarter of current levels before 2040, which is a clear long-term bullish signal. But don’t get too excited yet, because short-term risks are still present—major players could use this positive news as an opportunity to offload their holdings. Currently, the funding rates in the derivatives market are high, which could pose hidden risks. When rates are elevated, it’s easy to trigger a scenario where both longs and shorts get squeezed simultaneously.

So, how should one operate?

**Short-term**, it’s best not to chase the highs. Every time such news hits, a pullback usually follows—that’s normal.

**Mid to long-term**, hold your positions and don’t make reckless moves. The effect of reducing positions will gradually take hold, so there’s no need to rush.

**The key is the next 48 hours**. Whether the market can hold above the current support/resistance level will directly determine the future trend.

By the way, now every tweet from a certain founder is treated by the market as a "performance forecast" for Bitcoin. This narrative is becoming increasingly popular. But the question is—will it fall into the "light exposes death" curse again this time? What do you all think? Share your thoughts in the comments.

BTC1,99%

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down_only_larry

· 01-11 16:55

It's the familiar routine again, the old trick of pulling a wave after cleaning up the market. --- With such high fees, you should have already run, what are you waiting for? --- Honestly, I reverse trade as soon as this guy tweets, the success rate is super high. --- If we can't break this level in 48 hours, let's admit defeat, no more fantasies. --- Instead of guessing the founder's intentions, it's better to look at on-chain data, that's the real gold and silver. --- Miner's reduction of 1/4 sounds good, but main players' offloading can offset ten times that, don't be blinded by good news. --- Uh, here we go again, the usual pattern of falling first then rising, really tired, and someone still telling me stories. --- High risk in the short term, everyone. I prefer to stay flat and wait, mid-term will be discussed later. --- When funding rates are high, it's often the last frenzy before bottoming out, and this time won't be an exception. --- Every time they say the truth will be revealed in 72 hours, but when it really arrives, it's a new story again, sigh.

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SatoshiHeir

· 01-11 16:51

It should be pointed out that this set of arguments contains a fundamental fallacy. A sample size of 7 times? Laughable. This is far from enough to establish a valid statistical basis, let alone predict market trends. In plain terms, you are confusing correlation with causation. On-chain data is the truth, while the news sentiment is just a collective illusion of market participants.

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YieldWhisperer

· 01-11 16:48

actually the math doesn't check out here—72 hour sample size of 7 events is basically astrology with a spreadsheet

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NeonCollector

· 01-11 16:32

It's the same old trick again, let's see the outcome in 48 hours. --- This high fee rate is indeed dangerous, feels like I'm about to eat noodles. --- Basically, it's the rhythm of cutting leeks; I've seen it too many times. --- Long-term good news but short-term dumping, a classic double-kill trap. --- I just want to know how high it can go this time. --- Saying "don't chase the high" has been said a hundred times, yet some still follow suit. --- It's about 2040, but it can't influence the current market; the main players will dump whenever they want. --- Let's wait 48 hours, feels like this time it's uncertain. --- It's always like this—after shaking out the weak hands, it still goes up. --- Derivatives liquidation is coming, definitely. --- Stabilizing above the support and resistance lines is the key; everything else is nonsense. --- A certain founder has become a weather vane for Bitcoin, hilarious. --- If it gets a dead cat bounce again this time, I will directly abandon my coins.

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