Wu's Weekly Macro Indicators and Analysis: US CPI, Tariff Case Verdict

WuSaidBlockchainW · 2026-01-11T16:04:07+00:00

Wu says this week will focus on macroeconomic indicators such as the December US CPI and the Federal Reserve Beige Book. Last week, non-farm payroll data was poor, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, consumer confidence rebounded but was affected by high prices. Attention should be paid to the government shutdown risk and the Supreme Court's rulings.

WuSaidBlockchainW

2026-01-11 16:04:07

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Compilation: GaryMa Wu on Blockchain

Summary Wu on Blockchain’s weekly macro indicators and analysis: Last week, US non-farm payroll data was mixed; this week, the focus is on December CPI, the U.S. Supreme Court’s delay in ruling on Trump’s tariffs case, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on economic conditions.

Last Week Review

US December ADP employment increased by 41,000, compared to an expected 47,000, with the previous value revised from -32,000 to -20,000.

US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3rd were 208,000, versus an expected 210,000, with the previous figure revised from 199,000 to 200,000. US trade deficit in October was -$29.4 billion, compared to an expected -$58.9 billion, revised from -$52.8 billion to -$48.1 billion.

US non-farm employment added 50,000 jobs in December, below the expected 73,000, and also lower than the revised 56,000 in November; the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, below the expected 4.5%. Additionally, employment data for October and November were collectively revised downward by 76,000. BLS data shows that the average monthly job growth for 2025 is only 4,900, significantly lower than 16,800 in 2024.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January 2026 slightly rebounded to 54.0, reaching a new high since September 2025, but still down about 25% year-over-year; the improvement mainly comes from low-income groups, while high-income groups’ confidence weakened. Consumers remain affected by high prices and slowing employment. Regarding inflation expectations, the one-year inflation outlook remains at 4.2%, while long-term inflation expectations slightly increased to 3.4%.

Key Events & Indicators This Week January 12

The risk of another US government shutdown at the end of the month increases, with relevant funding bills submitted to the Senate for review this week.

January 13

US December Core CPI (Year-over-Year) (21:30)

January 14

US November PPI (Producer Price Index) (21:30)

The US Supreme Court delays ruling on Trump’s tariffs case; the next decision will be on January 14.

January 15

Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions (03:00)

US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 are ( thousand ) (21:30)

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