Over the past week, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $90,000 level, with both bulls and bears getting trapped, leaving many a bit confused. However, the next 7 days will be a critical turning point, potentially determining the medium-term trend. Using on-chain data and logical analysis, I will outline the current market situation.

**The Core Contradiction Facing the Market Now**

On one hand, on-chain data is sending positive signals. The profit-taking pressure that previously suppressed prices has significantly eased, and funds from the US spot ETF are beginning to flow back in, with institutional buying quietly returning. These factors are providing support at the lower end of the price.

On the other hand, the resistance above cannot be underestimated. Many investors holding costs between $92,000 and $117,000 are now waiting to break free. This has formed a massive supply wall. Whether this wall can be broken depends on a key indicator—the average cost basis of short-term holders is around $99,100. If the price can stay above this level, new inflows of capital will start to profit, restoring confidence; but if it cannot, it may fail like in 2022, with the rebound ultimately falling short.

**Two Possible Scenarios for the Coming Week**

Bullish scenario (about 45% probability): The price finds support in the $88,000 to $90,000 range. With continuous ETF inflows, it will first consolidate and gather strength, then launch a new rally. If it can volume-break through and stabilize above $95,000, that will be crucial—options market data suggests that market makers’ hedging positions above this level could passively push the price higher. Once this happens, the target shifts to the $99,100 cost line, preparing for a challenge of the $100,000 mark.

Bearish scenario (about 55% probability): Even if a rebound occurs, there is no momentum for a volume breakout. The price oscillates between $92,000 and $95,000, then tests support again. If the critical support at $88,000 is broken, subsequent risks will be unleashed, potentially leading to a retest of lower levels.

**My Judgment**

In the short term, there is indeed room for a rebound, but the large number of trapped positions creates significant resistance. The market’s performance over the next week will largely determine market confidence. Regardless of the scenario, risk management is more important than betting on a particular direction.