In December 2025, the US added 50,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 70,000, and the data for the first two months was revised downward by 76,000. The annual employment growth was only 584,000, the lowest since 2020. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%, mainly due to a decline in labor force participation, but actual employment momentum remains weak. By industry, healthcare and the restaurant sector supported growth, while retail jobs decreased by 25,000, indicating a cooling in consumer demand. Wages increased by 3.8% year-over-year, outpacing inflation, but the private sector added an average of 61,000 jobs per month, the weakest since 2003. Despite conflicting data, the decline in the unemployment rate temporarily eases the Federal Reserve's pressure to cut interest rates. Markets expect no change in January, with a possible 50 basis point rate cut for the year. The economy exhibits characteristics of "jobless prosperity," with slowing hiring and layoffs coexisting, and the labor market may further rebalance, potentially intensifying a "K-shaped" divergence.
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In December 2025, the US added 50,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 70,000, and the data for the first two months was revised downward by 76,000. The annual employment growth was only 584,000, the lowest since 2020. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%, mainly due to a decline in labor force participation, but actual employment momentum remains weak. By industry, healthcare and the restaurant sector supported growth, while retail jobs decreased by 25,000, indicating a cooling in consumer demand. Wages increased by 3.8% year-over-year, outpacing inflation, but the private sector added an average of 61,000 jobs per month, the weakest since 2003. Despite conflicting data, the decline in the unemployment rate temporarily eases the Federal Reserve's pressure to cut interest rates. Markets expect no change in January, with a possible 50 basis point rate cut for the year. The economy exhibits characteristics of "jobless prosperity," with slowing hiring and layoffs coexisting, and the labor market may further rebalance, potentially intensifying a "K-shaped" divergence.