Recent geopolitical tensions have reignited market volatility, but the actual impact on Bitcoin prices may not be as profound as imagined.

From market reactions, it’s clear that several forces are at play. First, the decline in risk appetite has driven safe-haven sentiment, pushing Bitcoin higher. Coupled with continuous inflows of funds into spot ETFs, this has created a sustained upward trend. This is relatively easy to understand—when global uncertainty increases, institutions and investors naturally seek relatively safe assets for hedging.

However, there is a rumor that is easily exaggerated: market whispers suggest that a certain country may hold about $60 billion worth of Bitcoin reserves. Once this figure surfaced, many people worried that inflows could cause market shocks. However, several institutions quickly debunked this, stating that the claim is highly unreliable and essentially false information.

From a regulatory perspective, the US’s tough stance has instead heightened concerns about the uncertainty of its crypto policies. If the US were to seize and hoard crypto assets, it would further fuel speculation that the US government is building a crypto reserve, creating new market psychological expectations.

Most importantly, the medium- to long-term trend of Bitcoin is actually determined by deeper factors: the flow of funds into spot ETFs, the pace of miner sell-offs, and the overall macro liquidity environment. Even if geopolitical events become more intense, they are at most short-term emotional disturbances. From a fundamental standpoint, these factors have not changed.