#预测市场 The prediction market is really taking off. From betting on Trump in 2024 to wagering on the NFL, this track has completely broken out of its niche—Kalshi is valued at $11 billion, and Polymarket received a $2 billion investment from ICE. Can you believe it?

The most outrageous part is that this is no longer a niche activity in the crypto world. Traditional financial giants like Robinhood, DraftKings, and FanDuel are all jumping in, rushing to set up shop before the 2026 World Cup. Robinhood's event trading business alone has generated $300 million in annualized revenue, making it the fastest-growing sector.

But the reality is even more painful—who wins and who loses is no longer decided by product innovation, but by whether regulators are willing to turn a blind eye. A cease-and-desist order from Connecticut and Nevada means platforms must take down their services. Distribution channels and compliance capabilities have become the new moat, which is a completely different world from the "freedom above all" ethos of the crypto space five years ago.

Sports markets are high-frequency, small-amount "traffic ATMs," while politics and macroeconomics are the "capital magnets"—this also explains why the most controversial issues tend to appear outside of sports markets. Large single bets easily touch sensitive public opinion areas and can cause a backlash.

If the 2026 World Cup truly becomes a stress test, only platforms that can maintain stable settlements under peak loads and avoid regulatory crackdown will survive to the next round. The dream of independence for small platforms may be coming to an end.