Many people trading cryptocurrencies treat it like playing a game with invincible mode—only thinking about how to make money, never considering how they might lose. But the reality is, the market tests your bottom line every day.

Truly stable traders, the first thing they do is not find the perfect entry point, but build a solid defense line first. In other words, they ensure they can survive in any market condition.

I’ve seen many people use a system that can make money, but a black swan event wipes out all their gains. Why? Because they never considered the worst-case scenario.

**How to do it? In two layers.**

The bottom layer uses a high-probability main strategy. For example, building positions in batches at key Fibonacci levels on the daily chart. This logic can maintain a win rate of around 89.3%—but that’s not enough, because even with a high win rate, a 3% failure can wipe out your account in one shot.

The upper layer adds hedging protection. With less than 0.3% of the cost, you set up a "safety cage" specifically to absorb black swan risks. The benefit is that even if the main strategy fails in extreme market conditions, your overall loss has a clear upper limit.

What is the mathematical expectation of combining these two layers? When using only the main strategy, the worst-case risk exposure is about 10%. After adding hedging, under the same expected return, the risk drops to 5%. The key is—you don’t pay an extra opportunity cost for this protection; instead, you use a small 0.3% cost to double your overall stability.

**More importantly, this leads to a change in mindset.**

Once you truly understand what the worst-case scenario is and know the maximum you could lose, trading becomes much easier. Why? Because uncertainty is largely absorbed. You’re no longer "betting" on the market; you’re "modeling" it—what if it surges, crashes, or moves sideways tonight? How would my system respond in each case? I’ve already thought it through and prepared how to react.

This is the fundamental difference between systematic trading and gambler-style trading.

Many people spend years chasing "which coin will rise 10x," but that’s not trading—it's just luck. What do real experts do? They design a system that can survive in any market, and on the basis of survival, accumulate small wins each time. Over ten years, these small wins grow into great wealth.

Your trading system needs a "shell." In this uncertain market, where does certainty come from? It comes from your respect for risk and your thorough contingency plans for the worst-case scenario.