A Polymarket trader recently gained some attention—earning $108,000 in a single month by predicting the movements of a tech mogul's tweets. Sounds like a lucky break? But the data might change your mind.



His account is right here: a total of 1,163 trades, with a profit of $267,000, and a net value curve that is basically a steady upward slope. This is not a flash in the pan, but a sustained and stable positive accumulation.

The most exaggerated trades in his list include: turning $232 into $12,000, $1,259 into $6,900, $11,100 into $72,000, and $28,000 into $118,000. The multiples are outrageously large, but all profitable.

His approach is actually very extreme—he focuses on one thing: predicting whether a certain tech mogul will post a specific type of tweet. It sounds narrow, but his execution is no joke. Instead of waiting for opportunities to come to him, he trades every day, constantly refining his predictive model.

You might think this is gambling, but the long-term, repeated, and consistently positive results tell a different story. The real logic isn't in the "news," but in deep modeling of individual behavior—what emotional cycle is this person in when they speak? At what moments can't they hold back? Which topics are they sure to participate in?

This isn't insider trading, nor is it about finding some market loophole. It's about understanding a highly influential individual to the extreme.

Most people are watching the news feed; he's betting on human nature, habits, and the repetitive patterns of history. This difference is what separates winners from those who fall behind.
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GhostWalletSleuthvip
· 01-11 04:56
Oh my, this is truly human nature at its worst, winning big time.
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BlockchainBardvip
· 01-11 04:56
Honestly, I saw through this routine a long time ago. It's just treating a certain person as a predictable trading target, nothing more than a combination of behavioral science and probability theory—nothing mysterious. --- $26.7 million sounds impressive, but the real question is whether you can keep doing it continuously. That's the hardest part. --- Wait, he just focuses on one person's tweets? Isn't that a form of information asymmetry arbitrage? Eventually, it will be countered. --- $232 to $12,000? Mathematically, yes, but such multiples usually indicate risk accumulation. One misstep and it's all gone. --- A classic survivor bias. Show me the data of those losing accounts. --- If I had to say, this guy has indeed developed a system around "reading people," but I still think he's too reliant on a single variable. Focusing too much on one person is too risky. --- Polymarket is basically a gambler's paradise. Would this approach make money in traditional markets? I doubt it.
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RektHuntervip
· 01-11 04:52
Wow, this guy really treats Musk as a trading item, but with such stable data, it's indeed a bit desperate.
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MaticHoleFillervip
· 01-11 04:46
Wow, just by focusing on one person's tweet rhythm, you can make a profit? How well do you need to know that guy?
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ShadowStakervip
· 01-11 04:40
so he basically built a personal MEV model but for twitter behavior instead of block ordering... honestly that's just sophisticated pattern recognition with skin in the game, not some market inefficiency that'll last. the moment this gets copied or the subject changes posting patterns, the edge evaporates. classic case of "what works until it doesn't"
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SorryRugPulledvip
· 01-11 04:33
It's that same spiel about "studying human nature." Frankly, it's just a gamble on a person's temper.
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