The changes in the US labor market are worth paying attention to. According to the latest data, the average monthly new jobs in 2025 are only 32,000 — how shocking is this number? Comparing it to early 2024, when the monthly growth was still between 150,000 and 200,000, it has now plummeted by over 80%. The December report is even worse, with only 50,000 new jobs added in that month.

What’s more concerning is that the officially revised data systemically underreports compared to the initial reports. What does this indicate? The government has been overestimating the true strength of employment.

Looking ahead, will the situation improve in 2026? The forecast suggests that monthly employment growth will slightly rebound to around 70,000, but the unemployment rate remains stuck at a high 4.5%. This creates a very strange phenomenon — economic growth is expected at 2.6%, yet employment remains stagnant. Such a mismatch is rare in history.

The behind-the-scenes drivers include accelerated AI automation, structural layoffs by the federal government, and companies proactively cutting labor costs to cope with tariff pressures. If this forecast materializes, the US could reenact the "jobless recovery" trap of 1992 or the early 2010s — GDP rises, but unemployment issues persist. The final result could be increased income inequality and deepening social divisions.