Many people are puzzled by a question: large whales and institutions buy and sell Bitcoin in huge OTC transactions. Even with massive trading volume, they don't cause waves on the market chart, so what exactly drives BTC prices upward?

The answer isn't complicated; it boils down to two words: scarcity. More precisely, it’s the continuous depletion of liquidity combined with the layered transmission of market sentiment.

**The Long-Term Power of Liquidity Disappearance**

Imagine an exchange as a water reservoir, and OTC transactions as a huge water barrel outside the pool. It may seem unrelated to the pool, but in reality, it has far-reaching effects.

When institutions buy 100,000 BTC through OTC, these coins usually transfer directly from miners or large wallets to institutional accounts. The key point is that these 100,000 coins disappear from the circulating market. They won't be listed as orders on the exchange and won't participate in daily trading.

As the available coin sources on exchanges become scarcer, the situation reverses. Retail investors, even if they only put in a small amount to buy, face a severe shortage of sell orders. Small buy orders chase increasingly scarce sell orders, causing prices to jump significantly. This is why sometimes a seemingly insignificant buy order can push the entire market higher.

OTC brokers' replenishment actions further amplify this effect. Some professional trading desks rarely have enough spot holdings. When the coins on the exchange start to tighten, they need to replenish. But they won't buy 100,000 coins all at once; instead, they break it into smaller portions and enter gradually. On the surface, no large orders are visible, but you'll notice that buy-side orders remain inexplicably strong, and prices are gradually pushed higher through this subtle, continuous buying.

**Sentiment Transmission: Chain Reaction from On-Chain to Market**

Today's market transparency far exceeds the past. After OTC transactions, coins move on the chain—transferring from Wallet A to Wallet B—and this information can be monitored instantly.

Platforms like X and various on-chain analysis tools immediately broadcast this signal: whales are stockpiling. Retail investors and high-frequency trading bots see this action and quickly follow suit by buying on the exchange. This transformation from on-chain information to exchange buy orders is the entire process of sentiment transmission.

Even more interesting is the leverage effect in the futures market. Currently, Bitcoin's price discovery is largely driven by the futures market. Once the price breaks through the liquidation price of short positions, those forced to close will do so at market price. The sell orders that suppress the price at high levels are forcibly cleared, and market orders directly consume buy orders on the long side. This is like adding fuel to the upward movement, rapidly pushing the price higher.

Thus, the entire chain forms like this: OTC chip depletion → on-chain signal transmission → retail and bot follow → increase in exchange buy orders → futures liquidations → accelerated price rise. Each link is tightly connected, ultimately converging into a seemingly "out of nowhere" surge.