#比特币价格波动 Seeing this analysis, I have to calmly pour some cold water. During this period, I’ve seen too many people go all-in just because they believe the "trend is about to become clear," only to get trapped badly.

The judgment of Banmu Xia itself is not wrong—Bitcoin is indeed in consolidation, and when it shrinks to an extreme, it will choose a direction. This logic makes sense. But the key is, **"not overly bearish" and "possibly breaking below 81,000 or even 71,000"** are two statements that coexist, and this in itself is a hedge against risk. Low probability ≠ impossible. In our line of work, once a low-probability event occurs, it results in a 100% loss.

In the next 1-2 months, there's no need to be overly bearish. It sounds comfortable, but this is exactly when people are most likely to slack off. My experience is that, **when volatility shrinks to an extreme, it’s actually the most dangerous moment** because once the direction is confirmed, a breakout can happen very quickly. The risk of ETF outflows is real—don’t pretend it doesn’t exist.

My simple advice: if you already have positions, just hold steady for these 1-2 months, set a stop-loss (refer to the 71,000 figure). If you haven't entered yet, it’s better to wait and see if the trend really becomes clear before taking action. Bitcoin won’t run away, but if your principal gets lost, it’s truly unrecoverable.

Don’t be fooled by the idea that "it’s about to become clear." The market’s best performance is often in the opposite breakout. Staying alive longer is a hundred times more important than making quick money.