Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon in industry discussions: some arbitrageurs are starting to shift their focus to the memory module market. The routine sounds all too familiar—buy and wait for automatic receipt, sell when prices rise within two weeks, and return if prices fall. They even come up with the term "zero cost, zero risk." As someone who has seen countless market cycles over the years, I have to be honest: we've played out this script in the crypto world too many times. Essentially, they are treating memory modules as liquidity tools for speculation.

Let's first look at the logic behind this wave of memory price increases. On the supply side, major chip manufacturers are shrinking traditional DRAM capacity, channeling resources into server-grade and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). As a result, the market for conventional memory modules is severely short of supply. Industry analysts forecast that in Q1, contract prices for traditional DRAM will rise by 55%-60%. On the demand side? Explosive growth in AI server orders, coupled with some mining projects trying out new memory mining ideas, has directly saturated demand. When both sides collide, and with arbitrage capital fueling the frenzy, prices have been driven to absurd levels.

Honestly, this process is very similar to the crypto boom of 2021. The meteoric rise of Dogecoin, SHIB, and others followed the same playbook: first, create a seemingly reasonable narrative (like AI demand or endorsement by a big influencer), then attract a large number of retail investors, ultimately forming a bubble. The memory market is now following this same trajectory.

But there is a key difference: memory modules at least have tangible utility—they are genuinely needed for computers and servers. What about those aircoins? They rely entirely on market consensus; once that consensus collapses, their fundamentals are zero. This difference means that the price of memory modules will ultimately revert to fundamentals and fall sooner or later. The game arbitrageurs are playing is essentially "exit before the bubble completely bursts." The question is, who can guarantee they won't be the last to take the fall?

Over the past decade in crypto, many entered with the mindset of "make a quick profit and run," only to find themselves trapped when there was no exit. Memory arbitrage might seem less risky than crypto because you can return the product, but the psychological trap is the same. Once this wave attracts enough follow-on capital and prices soar to ridiculous levels, the real test comes—market reversals—and most latecomers end up holding the bag.

How will this memory craze ultimately unfold? My judgment is that the supply chain will eventually adjust capacity, and DRAM prices will gradually return to rational levels. When that happens, this arbitrage game will become ineffective. The truly smart players will have already cashed out at a high point, while most will cling to illusions for too long. This is not fundamentally different from the crypto market—just a different asset class.