2026-01-10 17:25:53

Interesting phenomenon in front of us: BTC dropped 8% in 2025, breaking the old pattern of a three-year continuous bull market. Many people have therefore declared that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is completely invalid.

But upon closer inspection, I don't think so.

The key is that the gains of this bull market have been realized early. In previous bull markets, the main upward wave usually started after the halving. This time is different — the halving occurred on April 20, 2024, but as early as March 11, Bitcoin had already recovered from the bear market decline and hit a new all-time high. It's like the market's gains were brought forward, leading to a lack of momentum after the halving, and ultimately ending with a decline in 2025.

So why do I still believe the 4-year cycle will continue? Two core logics have not been broken:

**First, each halving can trigger a bull market.** This pattern is still in effect.

**Second, around 530 days after the halving, Bitcoin tends to top out.** Looking at the top times of the last three bull markets, they all clustered around approximately 535 days after the halving, which is astonishingly coincidental. What does this indicate? If the top timing can match, then the bottom timing can theoretically match as well.

So the cycle is not dead. Based on this logical deduction, it will take about 269 days from now to the bottom of this bear market. At that time, Bitcoin's price was $90,000.

BTC0,32%

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MagicBean

· 01-10 17:55

Oh wow, this logic is actually quite interesting... This is the first time I've heard of the idea of cashing out early. Basically, it's a matter of time displacement. The cycle hasn't collapsed, right? Yet some people insist on declaring death. Enough already.

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SatoshiHeir

· 01-10 17:54

Hey, someone finally explained this thoroughly. The group that kept shouting about the cycle being dead was really clueless and didn't understand the halving mechanism at all. I agree with the logic of cashing out early based on the market trend, which is why this year appears so "abnormal." But honestly, the prediction of hitting the bottom at 90,000 USD in 269 days... depends on how the on-chain data unfolds.

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AirdropHuntress

· 01-10 17:51

The data is indeed solid, and the 530-day peak pattern is very accurate. But the question is, can retail investors precisely hit the bottom? The idea that the market will be realized in advance is interesting, which is equivalent to a timing mismatch. However, I still want to verify the top data of those three bull markets; history always seems perfect. $90,000 bottom? It depends on how institutions dump their holdings. Can this price stay stable? 269 days is still a bit long; you have to resist the urge to buy the dip. Cycle theory is essentially about high probability, but probability ≠ certainty. I trust the data, but I pay more attention to the movement of wallet addresses.

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