Looking at the market movements from the beginning of 2026 until now, Bitcoin's recent rally is quite interesting: the price has been oscillating around $90,500, somewhat like testing the bottom.

In the short term, it’s indeed forming a consolidation range. On January 4th, it surged to $90,000, and then on January 10th, it even briefly reached $91,991, but then pulled back again. This indicates that the $91,500 to $92,000 zone is quite solid, and the support below at $89,000 to $89,500 is still holding. The signals from the capital side are somewhat mixed — the US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows of $1.128 billion for three consecutive days recently, clearly indicating institutions locking in profits. Some large investors’ actions are inconsistent, and no unified bullish signal has formed. Plus, the Fed’s rate cut expectations for January have basically been zeroed out, and the macro direction remains unclear, so in the short term, it’s likely to continue oscillating within this range.

But looking at the medium term, the story becomes more optimistic. People in the analysis community generally have a positive outlook for Bitcoin this year. An important change is that market dominance has shifted from retail investors to institutions. Since January, funds flowing into spot ETFs have been continuously returning, helping Bitcoin recover from last year’s correction. As institutional rebalancing for the new fiscal year progresses, the probability of continued capital inflows remains high, which will support prices to move upward. Additionally, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is tightening, and if the price can break through the psychological barrier of $95,000, it could trigger a wave of systemic buying. Some believe there’s a chance to hit a new all-time high within the first quarter, and many analysts see Bitcoin gradually moving into the $120,000 to $150,000 range this year, with even aggressive predictions suggesting it could reach $200,000 by the end of the year.

Of course, we can’t ignore factors that might cause a sell-off. If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, it could trigger a reverse "yen carry trade" liquidation, which in the past has caused Bitcoin to drop between 10% and 31%, leaving significant scars. Also, when the Fed will actually start cutting rates remains uncertain, and changes in global regulatory policies could at any time shift market sentiment, causing Bitcoin prices to deviate from expectations. These are risks that need close attention.