The power of rate cuts still cannot be underestimated.

Looking back at the market trends over the past few months, the pattern becomes clear. The surge from July to early October was essentially the market pre-emptively digesting the rate cut expectations from September to December of this year. Market movements often lead policy changes, which is standard practice.

What about the adjustments from October to November? The reason is straightforward—markets began to worry that the Federal Reserve might not continue rate cuts in January 2026. This shift in expectations directly pushed down the coin prices. When expectations change, the market reacts accordingly.

Since December until now, the market has been in a state of stalemate. The core reason is the uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will continue rate cuts from March to April 2026. Without a clear direction, both bulls and bears are watching, leading to sideways fluctuations.

From this logic, Q1 is indeed full of uncertainties, but Q2 might see a turning point. The key lies in the tenure of the Federal Reserve Chair— the current chair's term ends in May, and the new chair is expected to take office in June. Such leadership transitions often bring clearer policy signals, and market interpretations of rate cut expectations will also reach a new consensus. The confirmation of the rate cut cycle may well be the catalyst for the Q2 market rally.