2026-01-10 14:21:38

Recently reviewed the annual data compilation of a leading exchange, and a few interesting numbers are worth pondering.

First, the scale. The total trading volume for the year reached 34 trillion yuan. To compare with our A-shares—annual trading volume is about 56 trillion yuan (converted at the exchange rate). This means that this exchange's trading scale has long been comparable to a national-level stock market. Just thinking about it is a bit mind-blowing.

But what’s truly worth warning about is the trading structure. Of the total 34 trillion yuan, spot trading accounts for only 7.1 trillion yuan, with the remaining—almost 80%—coming from derivatives and contract trading. What does this ratio indicate? It shows that the platform’s revenue model is highly dependent on high-leverage speculation.

In the long run, this poses significant risks. Once the market matures and volatility decreases, the fee income from this kind of trading will definitely shrink substantially. Moreover, institutional-grade spot ETF products are gradually eating into the share of spot trading. If the industry moves forward with data exchange mechanisms in the future, users who are doing BTC dollar-cost averaging and long-term holdings could completely switch to institutional-grade ETF products—offering higher security and more controllable risks. This will have a long-term impact on traditional exchanges.

BTC4,76%

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BearMarketBard

· 01-12 17:54

80% contract... This is just a hot potato game, you'll be out sooner or later.

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ruggedNotShrugged

· 01-12 13:06

80% derivatives, this is basically betting on volatility. Once volatility dies, the entire model collapses.

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EntryPositionAnalyst

· 01-10 14:51

80% contract trading, this is just surviving on the liquidation fees of the retail traders. --- Once the market stabilizes, this model will eventually collapse. --- After the spot ETF launches, who still plays high leverage on exchanges... --- 3.4 trillion sounds impressive, but it's all built on bloody contract orders. --- To put it simply, it's an upgraded version of a casino, with risks that are terrifying. --- In the long run, derivative exchanges really won't have an easy time, truly. --- Once stability arrives, transaction fees will be doomed, this logic is sound. --- Institutions take over the spot market, retail traders' contract exchanges will be useless, it's just a matter of time. --- Thinking about it is upsetting; this model simply can't last much longer.

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FOMOrektGuy

· 01-10 14:48

80% contract? Isn't this just a casino, only with a different name?

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TokenomicsTrapper

· 01-10 14:47

nah wait, 80% derivatives? that's literally just a casino with extra steps lmao. they're basically saying "yeah our entire business model is watching retail get liquidated" and calling it volume 💀

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RektHunter

· 01-10 14:45

80% contract? That's outrageous, it means the entire organization is leeching off the gamblers.

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NotFinancialAdviser

· 01-10 14:42

80% contract? That's outrageous, pure gambling mode. --- Basically, it's just cutting leeks for leverage traders. How can it survive without volatility? --- After ETFs emerged, these places really need to transform. They're still relying on old methods. --- The scale is terrifying, but the structure is terribly bad. An incident is bound to happen sooner or later. --- Once the bear market arrives, spot trading will be abandoned, and a wave of contract liquidations will follow.

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LiquidationWatcher

· 01-10 14:39

ngl the 80% derivatives ratio is absolutely unhinged... been there, lost that back in 2022 lmao. those fee streams evaporate the moment vol dies down fr fr

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MetaverseMigrant

· 01-10 14:31

80% are contracts? This exchange is really playing with fire; sooner or later, it's going to crash.

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