2026-01-10 14:20:14

#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Unemployment rate declines, but job creation slows down — this seemingly contradictory phenomenon is changing the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move.

What happens when these two data points diverge simultaneously? The market's pricing mechanism immediately kicks in, and expectations for interest rate cuts are recalibrated. The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: on one side, concerns that inflation has not yet fully subsided; on the other, signals that economic growth may weaken.

Looking ahead to 2026, how will the Federal Reserve's policy direction evolve? It depends on how these two signals are combined. If unemployment continues to fall but job creation remains weak, it may indicate an ongoing economic restructuring; conversely, it suggests the labor market still has resilience. For traders holding crypto assets, this policy uncertainty often triggers volatility — expectations for rate cuts rise, and risk assets typically benefit.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

BitcoinDaddy

· 17h ago

Unemployment rate decreases, but job growth slows down... This contrast is quite stark, and the Federal Reserve needs to ponder for a while.

View OriginalReply0

TokenomicsTherapist

· 01-10 21:09

Unemployment decreases but employment remains weak, this stark contrast is really刺激, and the Federal Reserve must be headache-inducing.

View OriginalReply0

TrustlessMaximalist

· 01-10 14:43

Unemployment rate drops, employment can't rise, the Federal Reserve is about to make a big move, directly confusing my holdings.

View OriginalReply0

gas_fee_trauma

· 01-10 14:35

Unemployment rate has decreased but employment hasn't grown, this combination really hits the mark... If the Federal Reserve really cuts interest rates, my bag is about to take off.

View OriginalReply0

Gm_Gn_Merchant

· 01-10 14:33

Unemployment decreases but employment growth is slow. This round of operations is indeed a bit desperate. As soon as the rate cut expectation rises, the coins take off, but it feels like this wave of data swings back and forth. The Federal Reserve is really caught in a dilemma. Non-farm payroll data is always misleading; the key is to see how it develops afterward. Cutting interest rates before inflation has fully subsided? That will lead to repeated fluctuations again—old tricks. Brothers holding positions, you need to maintain a good mindset this time. With such high policy uncertainty in the second half of the year, it's easy to get cut. Contradictory data often presents the best opportunity to build positions or the best time to sell the top. The Federal Reserve's dilemma, honestly, is that they haven't figured out what to do either. They're gambling just like us. When these lousy data come out, the coin prices are going to fluctuate again. Forget it, I won't watch the market anymore. It's too annoying. Structural adjustments sound nice, but in reality, it just means the economy isn't that prosperous. The rate cut expectation has been hyped for so long. When it actually happens, it’s disappointing. I've seen it too many times.

View OriginalReply0

DAOdreamer

· 01-10 14:23

Unemployment rate has decreased but job opportunities are fewer, the Federal Reserve is playing a heartbeat game Wait, is this good or bad news for the crypto circle? As expectations of rate cuts rise, mainstream coins start to move impulsively Non-farm payroll data is so contradictory, retail investors are probably confused The Federal Reserve seems to be in a dilemma, what does this mean... is the policy window opening? Just want to know if there will really be a rate cut next, otherwise it's all empty talk Contradictory data = market uncertainty = our opportunity? Or a trick? Economic restructuring, sounds like it's not that simple Let's see in 2026, for now holding coins or holding coins, anyway, can't run away The Federal Reserve really makes things complicated, with unemployment rate and employment data conflicting

View OriginalReply0

MemeKingNFT

· 01-10 14:21

Unemployment decreases, employment weak... No matter how you look at this combination, it seems like the Federal Reserve is walking a tightrope—cut interest rates? No cut? Anyway, in our crypto circle, we’ll be playing the heartbeat game again haha. Wait a minute, isn’t this just a "I Ching" style data game—superficially one thing, secretly another? The market pricing mechanism restarts, and our holdings have to sway along with it. How will the Federal Reserve play its cards in 2026? Basically, it depends on how these two signals are combined. Once the rate cut expectation rises, risk assets get excited—I've seen this pattern in on-chain data long ago. I’m just worried about a "Southward-bound" situation—unemployment looks good on the surface, but employment is actually slacking off. When that happens, the economy might really need to adjust. 2026? Let’s just survive 2025 first. When the non-farm payroll data comes out, the market starts "floating on the mainland," and crypto prices fluctuate... I’m used to it by now. This non-farm payroll disruption shows that policy certainty is really gone. Uncertainty = volatility = trading opportunities? Or volatility = getting stopped out? Uh... don’t ask me. Unemployment and employment moving in opposite directions—this is basically testing our psychological resilience haha.

View OriginalReply0