ETH falls into a billion-dollar liquidation vortex, facing pressure from both bulls and bears

According to the latest data, ETH’s current price is $3,093.96, placing it in a dangerous “leverage雷区” (leverage danger zone). If the price drops below $2,941, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.03 billion; if it breaks through $3,245, the short liquidation strength will reach $989 million. This means that whether moving upward or downward, there are risk release points at the level of tens of millions of dollars. More concerning is that the overall market sentiment is leaning bearish, making the liquidation risk below particularly prominent.

Caught Between Two Liquidation Strengths

Liquidation Data Comparison

According to Coinglass data, ETH currently faces asymmetric liquidation pressure:

These two price levels form a roughly $304 range. The current ETH price is exactly in the middle, which means that any breakout in either direction could trigger chain liquidations worth billions of dollars.

Bulls Are More Vulnerable

It is worth noting that the liquidation strength below ($1.03 billion) is slightly larger than above ($989 million), implying that longs have a relatively larger risk exposure. In other words, if the price breaks below $2,941, the triggered liquidation liquidity will be more intense.

Why Market Sentiment Is Bearish

Data indicates that the market is currently leaning towards bearishness for ETH and the entire crypto market:

• Funding rates show mainstream CEXs and DEXs are generally bearish (including Bitcoin and altcoins)
• Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium for three consecutive days (-0.0837%), reflecting significant selling pressure in the US market
• Recent liquidation data shows frequent large-scale liquidations: over the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $406 million, with 138,000 traders wiped out
• ETH has declined by 3.14% over the past 30 days; despite some short-term rebounds, the long-term trend remains pessimistic

This bearish sentiment amplifies the threat posed by the lower liquidation strength. When bullish confidence wanes, touching the support at $2,941 could trigger panic liquidations, accelerating the decline.

Points to Watch

Probability of Price Trigger

The two key levels, $2,941 and $3,245, are not far from the current price. According to recent news, market volatility has been intense in the past few days, with BTC even briefly falling below the $90,000 psychological threshold. In such a high-volatility environment, the probability of ETH reaching these levels is not low.

Chain Reaction of Liquidations

This billion-dollar liquidation is not isolated. Based on recent liquidation data, breaking through a key level often triggers larger-scale chain liquidations. For example, when BTC drops below $90,000, total liquidations on that day exceeded $400 million. Similar scenarios are likely to repeat with ETH.

Institutional Funds’ Attitude

Related news shows that Morgan Stanley has filed for an Ethereum trust, opening a compliant channel for traditional funds. This indicates that institutions still have interest in ETH long-term. However, in the short term, cautious institutional attitudes (reflected in the negative Coinbase premium index) suggest that the momentum for a rebound may be limited.

Summary

ETH is currently at a delicate balance point. The $1.03 billion long liquidation strength below and the $989 million short liquidation strength above form a “leverage雷区” (leverage雷区). The overall bearish market sentiment reinforces downside risks, but this also means that if ETH can successfully break through the $3,245 level, the rebound potential could be significant. The key is to closely monitor whether these levels are broken and whether such breakouts will trigger larger chain liquidations. For traders, in this high-risk environment, setting stop-losses and avoiding high leverage are fundamental principles of risk management.