Polymarket currently prices the probability of a US military strike on Mexico by end of 2026 at 35%. This seems significantly overestimated when you dig into the actual mechanics and consequences.

Sure, tough rhetoric around cartels and border security dominates political discourse in Washington. The border pressure is undeniably real and remains a policy priority. But there's a massive gap between rhetorical posturing and executing a direct military operation on another nation's territory.

A scenario like that would cross multiple thresholds:

Diplomatic breakdown with Mexico and potential USMCA complications
International legal exposure and geopolitical blowback from regional allies
Domestic political and military resource constraints
Unpredictable cascade effects on energy, trade, and regional stability

The market's 35% odds appear to reflect headline sensitivity rather than structural probability. Most baseline forecasting models would suggest something closer to single-digit percentages when you account for institutional friction and alternative policy tools already available. Worth keeping this on your watchlist, but treat these extreme probabilities with appropriate skepticism.