Is it clear now? The most straightforward and obvious thing, which still seems somewhat counterintuitive, is very likely to happen this year—a fully on-chain, permissionless prediction market competitor will emerge unexpectedly.

Looking back, people have long moved centralized exchanges onto the chain. So what about prediction markets? Essentially, they are just options exchanges. As long as this logic holds, the emergence of decentralized alternatives is not a question of "if," but "when." That moment may be closer than you think.