The latest consumer survey data shows that the US market is experiencing an interesting paradox — inflation pressures are rising, but employment confidence is sharply declining.

According to the recent "Consumer Expectations Survey" released by the New York Fed, respondents' expectations for future year-over-year price increases have risen to 3.4%, up from 3.2% the previous month. This number may seem small, but the signal it sends is clear: market confidence in price stability is weakening.

What’s more noteworthy is the change on the employment front. Data indicates that consumers’ belief that they can find a new job easily after losing one has fallen to 43.1%, the lowest level since 2013. Imagine — only 43% of people think they can quickly find a new job after losing their current one, reflecting a genuine weakening in the labor market.

Lower-income households feel this most acutely. Those with annual incomes below $100,000 are the most pessimistic about job prospects, and they are also worried about their financial situation over the next three months. An interesting phenomenon is that although the proportion of people expecting the unemployment rate to rise is decreasing, the number of people actually fearing unemployment has increased, and willingness to voluntarily leave jobs is also declining — indicating that the labor market has entered a "low hiring, low mobility" conservative mode.

The Fed now faces a classic policy dilemma. On one hand, it must be cautious of a rebound in inflation; on the other hand, it needs to be concerned about the weakness in the employment market. This internal policy disagreement could mean that maintaining current interest rates in the short term is the most likely scenario, which will also increase market uncertainty accordingly.