superficially, the market seems calm, but the reality is much more complex.

Currently, Bitcoin fluctuates around $87,000. The Christmas holiday has led to a significant decline in market liquidity, and ETF funds have experienced short-term net outflows. Most people are a bit confused by this flat trend, unsure whether to hold or reduce their positions. But a closer look reveals that this strange calmness is precisely a sign of an impending storm.

The underlying market structure is changing, and several key signals point in the same direction—Bitcoin is gathering strength, and the possibility of reaching $100,000 is gradually increasing.

**Sentiment: Opportunities Hidden Behind Fear**

The Fear and Greed Index, used to gauge investor sentiment, has fallen to 24, indicating "Extreme Fear." Meanwhile, the Bitcoin premium index on a compliant US platform has been negative for consecutive days, showing strong selling pressure from US investors and a clear decline in risk appetite.

At first glance, this seems like a bad sign. But in fact, quite the opposite.

The reckless optimism that once dominated the market has been thoroughly cleansed. The frenzy of Q4 last year has long dissipated, leaving behind more rational participants. Overall leverage in the market has dropped to its lowest level in the past 30 days, a level not seen since 2022 according to historical data. The speculative bubble has been squeezed out.

Most interestingly, long-term Bitcoin holders are still selling, but they are not panicking and dumping their holdings. Instead, they are quietly increasing their positions during the downturn. This is a very important signal.

You will find that when the last hesitant investors give up hope and admit defeat, it often marks the market's reversal. The current cautious atmosphere is paving the way for the next upward trend.

**On-Chain Data: The Truth That Doesn't Lie**

Bitcoin's on-chain data is the most honest. It records real fund flows and genuine holder behavior.

Over the past month, long-term holders who have been accumulating Bitcoin since early days have sold approximately 815,000 BTC. This is the largest single-month sell-off since early 2024. It looks alarming, as if major players trying to bottom fish are all rushing to sell.

But looking at this data alone can be misleading. You need to compare it with other on-chain signals to see the full picture. Although these long-term holders are selling, the scale and speed of their sales are relatively moderate, not panic-driven dumps. More importantly, new funds and institutional investors' holdings are increasing during the same period.

In other words, this is not an exit but a rotation—veteran holders are transferring chips to new entrants. Such structural shifts often indicate that the market is preparing for a new upward cycle.

In the current environment, Bitcoin's activity data also tells an interesting story. Daily trading volume, while not extremely high, remains stable within a reasonable range, without the surge caused by panic selling. Conversely, the number of addresses holding Bitcoin for over a year is slowly increasing, indicating more people are choosing long-term holding.

**Market Turning Point**

Putting all these signals together, you realize that the current calm is not truly calm but a prelude to a storm. Extreme investor fear, historically low holdings, steadfast long-term holders, and gradually improving on-chain structure—all point to an upward trend.

The $100,000 threshold is no longer just a dream but a gradually approaching reality.