$1000WHY this wave from 0.0000168 to 0.0000253 with a 30% increase, simply put, is the result of a surge in contract holdings. The market maker, leveraging their capital advantage, has controlled the market in the short term, which looks impressive. But once you look at the long and short positions data of large traders, you’ll understand—after 20:00, the proportion of short positions has been steadily increasing, while retail traders are piling into longs when the price spikes. This misalignment of chips carries significant risks.

From the hourly chart, when the price hits 0.0000253, it begins to fall rapidly. Active buy orders jump from the high point, while active sell orders continue to volume up. It’s clear that the market maker is cashing out at high levels. What’s next? Most likely, the price will oscillate within the 0.000022 to 0.000024 range for a while. If during this oscillation the holdings continue to shrink and the long-short ratio keeps decreasing, the price is likely to break below 0.000020. Even if there’s a secondary attempt to push up to 0.0000253, the market maker’s chips are already being offloaded, so the momentum will be insufficient. Ultimately, it will follow the downward trend after the oscillation.