2026-01-10 13:23:30

The recent buzz in the circle has been intense, with many predicting that Bitcoin is about to enter a new wave of rapid growth, even claiming that the four-year cycle has ended. However, Fidelity Macro Director Jurrien Timmer's recent comments have poured cold water on this optimism.

His core view is straightforward: don't imagine Bitcoin's price movement as an infinitely upward power-law curve; it is more like an S-shaped growth pattern similar to internet development. In other words, the crazy short-term doubling that we saw before may be disappointing to expect again.

But he is not entirely bearish. This industry leader believes that the halving cycle still influences Bitcoin, and the foundation for a bull market remains intact. The dream of "a perpetual bear market" can be awakened from. The upcoming volatility will only become more intense, which is an inevitable feature of the S-shaped growth phase.

From a technical perspective, there are two price levels that are particularly critical:

**$65,000** — This is the lifeline that bulls must hold, and it is also the previous all-time high. If broken, it could trigger a series of chain reactions and corrections.

**$45,000** — This is a deeper safety cushion and the lower limit of the power-law trend. If the price truly drops to this level, it might actually be an excellent buying opportunity for the bulls.

The market is now divided. Some insist that $65,000 can be firmly defended, while others predict a direct test of $45,000. What’s your view? In your judgment, will Bitcoin continue its slow climb along the S-curve, or will it be forced to retrace and test these bottom lines?

BTC3,2%

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RamenDeFiSurvivor

· 01-12 16:18

Hmm... The idea of the S-curve sounds like an excuse for people who don't want to lose money to find a way out. To be honest, Wait, is Fidelity also secretly bottom-fishing? Singing bearish while hinting at a bottom-fishing opportunity—I've seen this routine too many times. If it really drops below 45,000, I'll go all in. What S-curve? This time, we have to test the bottom line; otherwise, I have no temper. I just want to hear one thing—will it be stable or collapse? Don't make it so complicated. A complete disappearance of the bear market is a pipe dream, but 45,000 might not really come; it's probably still fluctuating around 65,000. No matter how good the words sound, it all depends on the funds.

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GateUser-5854de8b

· 01-12 14:53

Fidelity director makes a good point. I'm just worried that another group of people will take the doubling dream as reality. To be honest, I think the range of 45,000 to 65,000 will fluctuate repeatedly; don't expect a meteoric rise.

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OvertimeSquid

· 01-11 09:48

This guy makes sense. The S-curve approach is definitely more reliable than the "endless upward" one, but can it really hold at 65,000? I have my doubts. The days of doubling are over. Next, it's just about repeatedly messing around. I believe the fluctuations will only get bigger. If it really drops to 45,000, I’ll have to think about whether I still have any bullets left...

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MEVictim

· 01-10 13:50

Hmm... The S-curve theory sounds quite rational, but it's a bit heart-wrenching 🤐 Those calling for tenfold increases might really need to lower their expectations. Breaking 6.5 should be cautious, but I'm more concerned about whether it can reach 4.5, which would be the real buying point. This wave of volatility is indeed large; it feels like Bitcoin is stabilizing even earlier. It's time to start looking at the candlestick charts again, so exhausting... Timmer's words basically mean: stop dreaming, everyone. Long-term optimistic but short-term unpredictable. If it really drops to 45,000, I'll go all in. I don't believe in superstitions anymore. S-curve growth... sounds like Bitcoin is "996," never resting? It feels like everything now depends on the central bank's stance; technical indicators and these numbers are becoming less meaningful. If we can't hold 6.5, the bears will start to show off again... I really dislike market disagreements like this. Wait for the pullback. Good things are only worth buying cheap.

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DeFi_Dad_Jokes

· 01-10 13:47

S-shaped growth sounds very professional, but I believe no one in the crypto world can really predict 🤷. No matter what Timmer says, it's better to look at the market depth. Breaking 65,000 is just a matter of time; the key is whether we can hold 45,000, which is the real test. The era of doubling may be over, but isn't this what a mature market should look like? So boring. If there's still momentum in the halving cycle, just keep betting. Anyway, I don't believe in the S-curve, and I definitely don't believe in "disappearance." People who are bearish will still buy the dip at 45,000; those who are bullish are also being shaken out. Ultimately, it's just a gambling game; no one can win. These experts change their tone every day. I only care about whether my position is losing or not; everything else is nonsense. 45,000 is the real entry point. Those buying now are probably high-position bagholders. The more volatile, the better. Isn't that the reason we exist? A stable dead city.

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LiquidityWizard

· 01-10 13:41

The S-curve analogy sounds comfortable, but in reality, which market hasn't experienced wild surges and crashes... Timmer is thinking too linearly.

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zkNoob

· 01-10 13:33

Fidelity's guy is talking nicely, the S-curve is just a polite way of saying "can't go up anymore." Breaking through 65,000, we directly test 45,000. I bet fifty cents.

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GateUser-1379e90d

· 01-10 13:24

Impossible

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