Fundstrat Global Advisors Research Director and Fundstrat Capital Chief Investment Officer Tom Lee recently put forward a bold view: if Bitcoin rises to $200,000 to $250,000, it could fundamentally break the "four-year cycle" rule that has long governed this market. Once this judgment was made, the crypto community immediately erupted.

Why is that? Tom Lee pointed out that in the past, Bitcoin's price movements were closely tied to halving cycles, liquidity changes, and market sentiment. But now, that's different — the market's fundamentals are undergoing profound changes. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a watershed moment, as traditional funds finally have a compliant entry channel, and the proportion of long-term allocation funds is clearly increasing. This directly weakens the cyclical boom-and-bust characteristics.

The key point here: once Bitcoin reaches $200,000 or even $250,000, it indicates that the market narrative has been completely rewritten. It is no longer just a speculative asset but is evolving into a "digital macro asset." By then, Bitcoin's pricing mechanism may resemble that of gold or other core financial assets, rather than simply revolving around the halving story.

At the same time, don't forget the broader context. Tom Lee emphasized that the combined effects of global liquidity expectations, fiscal deficit expansion, and anti-inflation demand provide structural support for Bitcoin. Once the price breaks through these key psychological levels, institutional investors' allocation models and risk budgets must be recalculated, creating a new positive feedback loop.

He believes that the true dividing line is not just price reaching new highs, but a fundamental shift in the participant structure. If that day truly arrives, Bitcoin could enter a whole new era — longer cycles, lower volatility, but a continuously expanding market capitalization.