2026-01-10 13:21:22

The fundamental logic differences between prediction markets and traditional crypto circles are actually much greater than imagined.

Behind crypto assets is traditional finance. How does traditional finance operate? Essentially, the rules are the products. Each market is a set of rule systems, and the real logic behind large transactions is not the assets themselves, but the opportunities brought by continuously emerging new rules. The rules are constantly evolving, and this is the space for value appreciation.

Prediction markets, on the other hand, are completely opposite. They are based on gambling logic. In a betting model, the rules must remain stable, and the odds must be predictable. These two factors are necessary for the entire business system to operate. If the rules change, the game cannot be played. This is the opposite of the "rules are opportunities" logic in financial markets.

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CryptoPhoenix

· 01-13 08:33

I have traversed the 2018 crash, and I understand the rules of game theory very well. To put it simply, it's still a matter of mindset, brother. --- Another insightful analysis that finally breaks through this mental barrier. The law of conservation of energy applies equally in the crypto world. --- Is a stable rule a good opportunity to make money? I feel like it might actually be easier to get cut... --- I'm awake now. The logic of predicting the market is not about making a profit from price differences. That's the real reason I've been losing. --- So, finding opportunities in change is more challenging to human nature than betting on stability. No wonder so many people are exiting. --- That explanation makes some sense, but I still don't believe the rules will be so gentle in offering new opportunities. --- No wonder my market prediction strategies always fail. Turns out I've been using financial thinking to gamble, and that's my problem.

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FloorPriceWatcher

· 01-13 04:38

Rules are opportunities vs rules must be stable, these two are truly inherently opposed... Financial markets thrive on the dividends of rule evolution. When the prediction market changes rules, it dies. No wonder the ecosystem is completely different.

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LucidSleepwalker

· 01-12 18:20

Ha, you're right. Comparing them like this indeed shows two different sets of logic.

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ConsensusDissenter

· 01-10 13:48

Rules vs. odds, finance vs. gambling... I never really thought about it from this perspective, but it feels quite insightful.

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ProofOfNothing

· 01-10 13:45

Wow, I really hadn't thought of this angle. Rules as product vs rules as constraints, one needs to change while the other needs stability... Sounds like predicting the market and playing that trick of cutting leeks just doesn't work at all.

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ser_we_are_early

· 01-10 13:40

Wow, this angle is fresh. To be honest, one benefits from rule changes and the other relies on stable rules to make a living. Completely opposite logic, haha.

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MysteryBoxBuster

· 01-10 13:33

Oh wow, looking at it this way, the prediction market and the crypto world are basically two different games. No wonder it always feels awkward. When the rules change, the crypto world gets excited, but the gambling market collapses as soon as the rules are altered. The difference is indeed significant. To put it simply, one benefits from制度红利 (regulatory dividends), and the other from information asymmetry—completely opposite business models.

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GasFeeLady

· 01-10 13:27

ngl this hits different... so you're saying prediction markets are literally the opposite speedrun of defi? rules gotta stay locked in or the whole thing collapses... that's actually kinda genius tho, means you can actually time your entry without worrying about some governance vote rugging your bags lol

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NewPumpamentals

· 01-10 13:22

Wow, someone finally explained this clearly. The rules themselves are a business, and this perspective is brilliant.

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