Since LYN dropped from the high of 0.20200, the overall rhythm has changed. The 0.15590 level has now become a hurdle, with a large number of retail investors trapped above it. These floating loss positions have yet to be fully digested.

Looking at the 0.135 to 0.14 area, it appears to be support on the surface, but in reality, it’s just fake support built by retail investors bottom-fishing. The big orders? Either they don’t come or they come and then dump. Those green volume bars with upward movement? All small retail investors entering the market, with little weight behind them.

On the futures side, open interest is climbing, but what's interesting is—whether measured by the number of accounts or by open interest—short positions are always outweighing long positions. It looks like open interest is increasing, but the long-short ratio is diverging. What does this mean? The main players are quietly adding short positions amid this volatility, not genuinely optimistic about a rebound. Technical analysis makes this even clearer: the 1-hour MACD has already crossed bearish, and although the 4-hour MACD green bars are narrowing, they haven't formed a golden cross yet, indicating weak signals that haven't been eliminated.

In the short term, the most likely scenario is repeated consolidation between 0.132 and 0.138. The 24-hour low at 0.13281 will block some bottom-fishing funds. But if this range is broken with increased volume, the price could directly fall toward the previous consolidation zone of 0.12 to 0.125. Even if there’s an occasional rebound to 0.14 or 0.145, it won’t escape the selling pressure from the 0.15590 trapped positions. Large investors aren’t stepping in to buy, so any rally is just a trap to lure in more buyers.