Next week, several events are worth paying close attention to.
First is the Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs, expected to be announced on the 14th. Based on market implied probabilities, there is about a 26% chance that the court will support the tariff policy. The key is how Trump will respond to the ruling—whether he will proceed smoothly or cause new trouble, which could have a significant impact on global markets. Meanwhile, the earnings season is also kicking off, with many important listed companies releasing annual reports next week, providing a good opportunity to assess fundamentals.
Regarding economic data, the December US CPI is the highlight, to be released at 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday evening. Market sentiment is relatively balanced, but last month's CPI data sparked quite a bit of controversy. This time, it will be interesting to see whether the trend continues or if there will be new divergences.
In commodities, gold and silver prices rebounded this week. Despite quite volatile fluctuations, gold has stabilized above $4,500. Next week, focus on whether they can continue to rise and hit new highs. Crude oil is also quite interesting; after a sharp drop and then a big rally this week, prices have returned to the upper end of the oscillation range. There are signs of tightening supply and demand in the market, and downstream demand is finally starting to improve. It remains to be seen whether oil prices can break resistance and move higher next week.
On bonds, domestic ultra-long-term government bonds broke above 2.30% this week, easing short-seller sentiment. Next week, the trend should be further confirmed. US long-term bond yields have pulled back somewhat; continue to monitor subsequent developments.
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Next week, several events are worth paying close attention to.
First is the Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs, expected to be announced on the 14th. Based on market implied probabilities, there is about a 26% chance that the court will support the tariff policy. The key is how Trump will respond to the ruling—whether he will proceed smoothly or cause new trouble, which could have a significant impact on global markets. Meanwhile, the earnings season is also kicking off, with many important listed companies releasing annual reports next week, providing a good opportunity to assess fundamentals.
Regarding economic data, the December US CPI is the highlight, to be released at 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday evening. Market sentiment is relatively balanced, but last month's CPI data sparked quite a bit of controversy. This time, it will be interesting to see whether the trend continues or if there will be new divergences.
In commodities, gold and silver prices rebounded this week. Despite quite volatile fluctuations, gold has stabilized above $4,500. Next week, focus on whether they can continue to rise and hit new highs. Crude oil is also quite interesting; after a sharp drop and then a big rally this week, prices have returned to the upper end of the oscillation range. There are signs of tightening supply and demand in the market, and downstream demand is finally starting to improve. It remains to be seen whether oil prices can break resistance and move higher next week.
On bonds, domestic ultra-long-term government bonds broke above 2.30% this week, easing short-seller sentiment. Next week, the trend should be further confirmed. US long-term bond yields have pulled back somewhat; continue to monitor subsequent developments.