We might already be in bear territory and just haven't figured it out yet. Consider the signs: altcoins struggling to gain meaningful momentum, retail sentiment swinging wildly between euphoria and despair, major projects failing to break previous resistance levels despite positive catalysts. The trick with market cycles is they're only obvious in hindsight. During the accumulation phase, skeptics call it a dead market. During distribution, believers insist it's still early. So how do you actually tell? Look at volume patterns, on-chain metrics, and whether new money is flowing in or institutions are quietly taking profits. The distinction matters because if we're already in the downturn, the playbook changes entirely—position sizing, risk management, opportunity hunting. Many traders are still playing by bull market rules while the game has shifted beneath their feet.