2026-01-10 12:26:52

Looking at customs data, the total export value of lithium batteries in 2025 is around 550 billion yuan. Based on an average price of 0.6-0.7 yuan/Wh, the export volume is approximately 800-900 GWh.

Breaking it down, pure battery products like energy storage and power battery packs account for about 300 GWh, which are most directly affected by price. The battery packs carried by new energy vehicles are also included in the statistics, but what's interesting is—since the vehicles themselves cannot avoid taxes, the cancellation of battery tax rebates has little impact on the end prices.

With domestic electricity prices so low, the returns on integrated wind, solar, and storage projects are quite good. Overseas high electricity prices still drive strong demand for energy storage. Although the frantic demand last year may have cooled somewhat, the pressure on energy storage should be limited.

The key is whether the prices can be smoothly transmitted to the end customers. Given the current situation, it’s likely they can. Unlike photovoltaic products, which have fallen into a bottomless price war. Looking ahead, 2026 may become a wave of rush installation, benefiting upstream mineral supply. When demand contracts in 2027, it will instead suppress later capacity releases, supporting the current mineral landscape.

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LucidSleepwalker

· 6h ago

Energy storage exports of 300GWh are indeed stable, with overseas electricity prices standing there, and demand is strong. The battle in the photovoltaic sector was brutal; hopefully, batteries won't follow the same path. The 26-year rush to install offers a chance to profit, but how 27 will go is still quite uncertain. Including vehicle batteries in the statistics is quite interesting; the tax avoidance trick can actually be done like this. An export volume of 550 billion sounds quite large, but when divided by each Wh, the amount of money is just a little. Are profits really squeezed so tightly? The advantage of cheap domestic electricity prices should be well utilized, or else competitiveness will gradually be eroded. The reverse support logic in mineral resources is a bit novel; let's wait and see how 27 unfolds.

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FOMOmonster

· 01-10 12:54

Energy storage is truly different; the urgent demand driven by high overseas electricity prices is supporting it, unlike the intense competition in photovoltaics.

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SatoshiHeir

· 01-10 12:51

It should be pointed out that this data analysis framework itself has fatal flaws. The conversion of 800-900GWh of export volume? Ha, once again fooled by the illusion of average price. According to industry reports at the white paper level, the battery cost curve has long discredited the linear conversion model. The figure of 300GWh on the energy storage side precisely indicates— the entire narrative framework is just defending overcapacity. The rush to install in 2026 and the contraction in 2027— I've heard this cycle theory since 2017. The "support" of mineral patterns? Laughable, the real pricing power lies on the supply side. Without studying the upstream mining financing chain, what are we talking about in terms of price transmission?

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GweiWatcher

· 01-10 12:49

Energy storage is really interesting. Overseas electricity prices are so high, and our batteries are still cheap. The price difference is quite significant. Whether price transmission is smooth or not is the key. Don't turn it into a cutthroat competition like photovoltaics again. Is the 2026 installation rush coming? Upstream mineral resources are about to take off. I hadn't considered that the cancellation of battery tax rebates wouldn't have much impact on the whole vehicle. Learned something new. While 550 billion in export value seems substantial, the real question is how long energy storage can sustain.

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CoffeeOnChain

· 01-10 12:46

The demand for energy storage is still strong; I'm just worried that a price war will break out and result in chaos again.

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JustHodlIt

· 01-10 12:41

800-900GWh, this number looks okay. But can energy storage really last until 2027? It seems like the demand fluctuations overseas are too significant.

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