Market Changes Under the New Export Tax Refund Policy for Lithium Batteries

Recently, I looked at customs data. By 2025, the total export value of lithium batteries is expected to be around 550 billion yuan. Based on an average price of 0.6-0.7 yuan/Wh, the actual export volume is approximately 800-900 GWh. Among these, pure battery exports (including energy storage and power battery packs) account for about 300 GWh, and this segment is more sensitive to price fluctuations.

From the perspective of domestic electricity prices, the returns on integrated wind, solar, and storage projects are actually quite good. Overseas electricity prices are so high that energy storage demand remains extremely strong, similar to the second half of last year. Therefore, from the energy storage side alone, the impact of export tax refunds may not be as significant as imagined.

The key issue is the power batteries. The export of complete new energy vehicle (NEV) units, which includes battery packs, is also included in the calculation, and vehicle exports cannot avoid taxes. However, in practice, removing tax refunds on batteries does not significantly impact the end prices of vehicles. In the long run, prices may only slightly increase, without shaking the market demand for NEVs.

Price transmission to end customers is likely to proceed smoothly, unlike the endless price competition seen in the photovoltaic industry. The rush to install in 2026 will boost lithium mineral demand, but by 2027, demand will shrink, and upstream mineral supply will also be constrained. This situation could actually benefit existing lithium mining capacities.