Recently, I took a close look at the market charts, and ETH's 1-hour chart has indeed shown some interesting signs.

First, let's talk about the technical situation. How tight are the Bollinger Bands now? The distance between the upper and lower bands is still less than 1.5%. This extreme contraction in volatility is well known among market veterans—either a sharp upward surge or a sharp decline is imminent, with little chance of a middle ground.

The moving averages are even more intriguing. The EMA7 and EMA30, as well as the MA7 and MA30, are all clustered tightly between 3092 and 3096, almost touching each other. The price is tightly wrapped by these moving averages, and market participants are highly aligned within this cost zone—only waiting for a signal to trigger a move.

Regarding MACD, a golden cross has appeared below the zero line. Although the green bars are still small, they are gradually decreasing. More importantly, the DIF is slowly crossing above DEA, indicating what? The bearish momentum is waning, and the bulls are quietly accumulating energy.

On-chain data is even more interesting. Looking at Glassnode and Nansen data, ETH holdings on exchanges are continuously decreasing, with recent net outflows being particularly significant. What does this mean? Someone is withdrawing coins from exchanges.

At the same time, large addresses holding over 10,000 ETH are quietly increasing their holdings. This isn't retail behavior—retail investors don't have that much money to buy all at once. This is the smart money on the chain accumulating chips at the current price.

Additionally, the total staked ETH in ETH 2.0 has hit a new high. Long-term holders are voting with their actions, forming a strong support level below.

On the news and market sentiment front, macro expectations for liquidity are shifting from cautious to mildly optimistic. More importantly, the final approval window for the Ethereum ETF is getting closer, and any positive news could ignite this long-anticipated candle. Currently, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, which is actually a shakeout before the next rally.

Overall, the current chart pattern isn't a sign of indecision but rather that the direction has already taken shape in the shadows. The price repeatedly finds support at key moving average clusters, on-chain smart money shows net inflow, and the technical pattern has compressed to the limit.

My straightforward judgment: the probability of an upward breakout is much higher than a downward breakdown.

If I were to set a target, the first stop is the upper Bollinger Band, around 3116. If the price can effectively hold above that, it will likely quickly test the previous high-volume zone between 3150 and 3180.

In terms of trading strategy, I see 3090 to 3095 as a critical support zone. As long as the price stays above this, I maintain a low-risk long bias. Once the hourly candle breaks through 3105 with volume, that’s a clear signal—consider adding to positions.

The market always rewards traders who are patient and prepared. Now, it’s just a matter of waiting for that breakout candle to emerge.