2026-01-10 12:22:47

From on-chain data, new opportunities and risks for Terra Classic

Everyone, I want to discuss an important turning point that has recently caught my attention. The Terra ecosystem reached a milestone on January 16, 2026—Terraform Labs officially shut down. As a trader who has been closely monitoring LUNC on-chain dynamics for a long time, my view is that: this event might be misunderstood by the market itself.

First, let's talk about regulatory risks. The $4.55 billion settlement agreement between TFL and the US SEC has been finalized, and the case against founder Do Kwon has also reached a verdict. In other words, the sword hanging over LUNC has finally been lifted. This is actually a positive for the long-term development of the ecosystem—no more sleepless nights over past regulatory issues.

Changes in circulating supply are even more noteworthy. According to bankruptcy procedures, 275 billion LUNC and 1 billion USTC in TFL accounts may be destroyed. Calculate it yourself—this directly reduces market selling pressure. The disappearance of 4% of the circulating supply creates a deflationary effect on the supply side.

The ecosystem's actions haven't stopped either. The Terra Classic chain has completed the v3.1.5 upgrade, and optimization plans like Tax2Gas are also underway. I checked developer activity data, which has increased more than threefold. Ecosystem tools like Terraport and Garuda DEX are continuously iterating, indicating that people are still working diligently.

On the on-chain data layer, what do I see? The concentration of whale addresses' holdings has jumped from 15% directly to 22%. This suggests that smart money is active at the bottom. Meanwhile, LUNC's net outflow from exchanges is expanding—usually a sign that major players are preparing something.

Of course, risks cannot be ignored. But the current environment is indeed much clearer than before.

LUNC-1,65%

USTC-0,53%

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BottomMisser

· 31m ago

2750 billion LUNC burns sound appealing, but the whale concentration has skyrocketed from 15% to 22%... We need to look closely, don't be fooled by the deflationary story. --- So TFL shutting down is considered good news? I feel like the drop should have happened when the suspense was resolved, but instead it's rising now... How should we interpret this? --- Developer activity has tripled, indicating the ecosystem is still alive, but what about LUNC itself? Is it worth playing or not? --- Increasing net outflows = main players preparing? Or maybe retail investors are fleeing. These two signals can actually be understood in opposite ways. --- The regulatory clampdown is indeed comfortable, but after falling so much in the past two years, how much room is there for a rebound? It depends on market sentiment. --- The 4% destruction from bankruptcy proceedings sounds intense, but it only accounts for 4% of the total supply... Don't get your hopes up, everyone. --- Tax2Gas optimization... Can these technical upgrades bring purchasing power? It feels like the ecosystem is just self-indulging; spot holdings are the real thing. --- I'm afraid when whales start bottom-fishing, it usually signals big players locking in their chips. Retail investors, don't follow the trend.

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AltcoinHunter

· 01-10 12:52

Hey, about TFL shutting down, I think the market is overly pessimistic. Regulatory enforcement might actually be a positive? Honestly, it’s a bit counterintuitive, but the data is right here... 275 billion LUNC burned, 4% of the circulating supply just gone like that. In terms of supply-side pressure, we definitely have the advantage. The whales are accumulating at this bottom, I believe in that. I'm just worried. Projects like LUNC have too many stories. Now there are developers involved again, which sounds good for the ecosystem but, to be honest, it’s... you know. Is this really different this time? Or are they just trying to trap a new wave of retail investors again? I’ll be straightforward.

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ETHReserveBank

· 01-10 12:44

Hmm... Could it actually be a good thing that TFL is shut down? I need to think about this logic. Whales jumping from 15% to 22% indicates that someone is indeed bottom-fishing. LUNC might really have a chance this time, but it still depends on whether the ecosystem can truly support it. It's true that the regulatory sword has been lowered, at least there's no more suspense in my mind. If this 275 billion token burn really happens, the market pressure will definitely be much less.

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OPsychology

· 01-10 12:37

Wake up everyone, is it actually a good thing that TFL is shutting down? I need to ponder this logic... Whale concentration jumps from 15% to 22%, is this bottom activity real or fake? Don't tell me it's just another manipulation by the big players to shake out retail investors. Destroying 275 billion LUNC sounds satisfying, but can the bankruptcy process really be carried out to the end? The lessons from history are right there. Developer activity has increased threefold year-over-year? I need to see how this data is calculated—are there a lot of false reports? LUNC net outflows are expanding—well, maybe it's just retail investors cutting losses and fleeing, who knows. I don't deny that there are opportunities in this round, but it feels a bit too optimistic. We need to hold the bottom line, everyone.

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MetaLord420

· 01-10 12:32

Wait, is TFL really going to shut down? Then the 275 billion LUNC burn must be watched closely, directly changing the supply side. Whale address concentration jumped from 15% to 22%, is this really bottom-fishing or another round of chopping the leeks? It's hard to say. The bankruptcy agreement actually being a positive? It feels like they're saying the regulatory sword has been put down so LUNC can breathe, but can this really extend its life? Developer activity tripling sounds impressive, but is it really doing work or just self-entertainment? I want to see the data. As net outflows from exchanges increase, if the main players are accumulating, that would be interesting. Unfortunately, big holders usually don't say it outright.

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CexIsBad

· 01-10 12:24

Wait, the whale concentration jumped from 15% to 22%? Isn't this a typical move before a dump... --- Honestly, I'm more reassured that TFL is closed; it's better than worrying about SEC taking a shot every day. --- A 4% reduction in circulating supply doesn't sound like much, but it indeed changes the supply logic. Worth watching. --- Developer activity has increased threefold? I feel like most of it is just hype. --- Net outflows are expanding... What are the major players planning? Either pump or dump, they won't let retail investors feel comfortable. --- Bottom activity + whale concentration... This combo really has some potential. --- But the regulatory implementation is definitely a relief; the previous uncertainty was the most annoying part. --- Is Terraport still updating? I didn't expect this ecosystem to still be alive.

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