Recently, a comprehensive technical review of Ethereum's trend was conducted. Combined with on-chain data, the recent downward pressure is indeed worth paying attention to.

**Technical Indicators Show Clear Weakness**

The price has declined from $3265 to $3255, with Bollinger Bands clearly expanding at both upper and lower bands. The price trend is closely hugging the lower band, operating near $3199. This pattern typically indicates that bearish forces are gradually accumulating. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross below the zero line, with the green histogram bars continuing to enlarge (DIF value 12.94, DEA at 13.64), reflecting a decline in short-term momentum.

Key moving averages also show unfavorable signals. The MA7 resistance level is at $3265, while the MA30 support level is at $3239. Although it is still supporting at this moment, maintaining this position is becoming more difficult. Once these critical levels are broken, further declines may be triggered.

**On-Chain Data Reveals Quiet Capital Shifts**

Data from the past 24 hours show that Ethereum inflows to major exchanges increased by 15%, with a noticeable rise in large transfers. Looking at the holdings structure, large addresses (holding over 10K ETH) have recently reduced their holdings by about 2%, while retail investors are increasing their positions. This divergence often indicates that smart money is bottom-fishing or taking profits at highs, while retail investors remain steadfast. Such structural changes usually amplify subsequent volatility.

**Macro and Regulatory Environment Cannot Be Ignored**

On a broader scale, the Federal Reserve's recent policy stance remains cautious, exerting pressure on risk assets overall. As a high-risk asset class, cryptocurrencies are directly affected. Additionally, regulatory frameworks for DeFi in Europe are continuously being refined, which could have short-term impacts on Ethereum ecosystem applications.

Recently, expectations for Ethereum network upgrades have cooled, and market funds are flowing more into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, lacking strong positive catalysts. These factors combined suggest that short-term correction pressures are relatively high.

**Technical Targets and Risk Warnings**

Based on the above analysis, the lower Bollinger Band at $3199 is an important observation level. If this support is effectively broken, the next test could be around $3150. From the data, short-term rebound opportunities may appear, but such rebounds are more likely to be corrective waves rather than trend reversals.

Market changes tend to be reflected in data ahead of time. Currently, both on-chain data and technical indicators point in the same direction — caution is warranted regarding downside risks. Managing positions well during rebounds is a key strategy to cope with the current environment.