Recently, I've been watching Bitcoin's trend and found an interesting pattern: when the US stock market rises, it plays deaf and mute; when it falls, it immediately follows suit. This combo has been going on for a while.

Speaking of which, it's very similar to last year's wave of German government sell-offs. Back then, it was the same—good news didn't help the price, but bad news could create a pit. What's going on?

Basically, the problem lies in the composition of on-chain funds. Institutional funds now make up too large a portion. Once their risk control systems are activated, even the slightest disturbance prompts them to start cutting positions. The issue is that retail investors aren't as active, so their buying power can't keep up with institutional selling. The result is this situation: good news comes, no one buys; bad news arrives, and everyone runs.

To make Bitcoin break out of its independent trend, either these selling pressures need to be fully absorbed, or new incremental funds need to come in. Otherwise, this slow-rising, choppy decline might continue for some time.