2026-01-09 19:24:30

Market Bets on the Federal Reserve Holding Steady in January

The consensus in the market is very clear — the Federal Reserve will not move in January. According to relevant data, the market's expectation for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January has risen to 96%.

What does this reflect? Traders have a very clear view of the recent monetary policy direction. From the perspective of the prediction market, market participants overwhelmingly believe that the Fed will choose to pause rate hikes and maintain the current interest rate level. This high level of consensus is uncommon in prediction markets and typically indicates a high degree of certainty about the policy direction.

For the crypto market, such macroeconomic policy expectations often influence the overall performance of risk assets. The stable interest rate outlook may help alleviate some market uncertainties.

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MetaverseMigrant

· 01-12 19:24

96%? This consensus is too unanimous, I feel like something's going to happen. Alright, let's first secure a position and then talk. The Federal Reserve has made it clear, we need to stabilize. Wait, are these positive signals being preemptively locked in by the vampires?

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PermabullPete

· 01-12 18:30

96%？ Isn't this just the market betting that the Federal Reserve will take it easy in January? Laughing to death --- Stable expectations can only ease uncertainty? That sounds ridiculous to me --- These guys are all on the same page, just waiting for the Federal Reserve to stop messing around --- Crypto can only breathe a sigh of relief if the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates. Life here is really tough --- The market prediction is so definite, I actually start to doubt it --- A 96% probability is way too high. According to historical patterns, it should be the opposite at this point --- Waiting for good news in January, at least the interest rates shouldn't rise again

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DataChief

· 01-12 15:41

96%？Alright, then let's wait for the Federal Reserve in January to prove us wrong. --- Maintaining expectations is just maintaining expectations; anyway, the crypto market will still fall when it’s supposed to. --- Oh my, it's "high consensus" again. I'm tired of hearing that phrase... --- Relieving uncertainty? I think it's just giving everyone a reason to get off the train. --- When everyone thinks this way, it's usually a contrarian signal, right? --- Interest rates stay unchanged = crypto can rise? I don't think it's that simple. --- Feeling a bit anxious. This kind of consensus is indeed abnormal.

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ForkTongue

· 01-11 14:24

96%？This number is too outrageous, it feels like traders are all asleep, where does such a uniform consensus come from... --- Stable expectations are good, at least they can give the crypto world a breather, no need to gamble on the Federal Reserve's temper every day --- Wait, is this high level of agreement even more frightening? It seems to hint that something bad is about to happen... --- Will the Federal Reserve really listen? I feel like there's a conspiracy --- Holding rates steady = crypto assets are saved? Not convinced yet, let's wait and see --- The market is so confident in its predictions, should we take the opposite action... --- Risk assets easing uncertainty? Bullshit, this is just a new trap --- Standing still sounds stable, but it feels like the calm before the storm

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LightningHarvester

· 01-09 19:52

96%啊，这共识得多硬啊 --- Are hawks turning dovish? Or is the Federal Reserve trying to stabilize? --- Wait, in that case, should the crypto market rebound this time? --- Honestly, such high consensus can be a bit dangerous, easily leading to reverse liquidation. --- If interest rates stabilize, crypto can breathe a sigh of relief, finally no longer needing to watch macro news every day. --- Hey, 96% is too absolute, I actually find it a bit hard to believe. --- If traders all think this way, should retail investors consider a reverse strategy? --- The lightning liquidation machine is in action, everyone, be careful. --- Stable expectations = risk assets recovering? Is our time coming?

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FOMOSapien

· 01-09 19:49

96%—that's a bit outrageous. Is the market really that unanimous? It feels like we should be more cautious.

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DegenRecoveryGroup

· 01-09 19:47

96%? This probability is almost approaching "certainty," but I still find it hard to believe... To be honest, I've seen the Federal Reserve's tricks many times. When the bearish sentiment is widespread and suddenly reverses, that's when it's most dangerous. On the crypto side, it seems like we need to follow the hype and expectations. When stable expectations come, we should be extra cautious.

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OnchainGossiper

· 01-09 19:47

96%? This consensus is too unanimous, it feels a bit strange. Alright, if the Federal Reserve keeps its stance, the crypto market can finally breathe a sigh of relief. It would have been better to do this from the start, but they had to mess around for a long time. When the Federal Reserve moves, we suffer along with it. Hopefully, this time it will truly stabilize.

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SchrodingerPrivateKey

· 01-09 19:35

96% this probability... Traders are really quite confident now --- It's settled, it's settled. No rate hikes in January are basically a done deal. Now we're just waiting for the crypto market to follow suit and take off --- Speaking of which, such high consensus is actually more likely to cause a sell-off. When everyone thinks the same... --- If interest rates stay unchanged, it means liquidity is loose? Then it should take off --- Honestly, a 96% probability isn't a big deal in the crypto world; it can still reverse and cause a liquidation --- So this wave of market movement is supported by stable policies? I don't think so --- The Federal Reserve stays put, is Bitcoin about to rise? --- When market consensus is high like this, I actually get nervous. It's usually not that simple --- If risk assets are to benefit, then crypto should be thrilled

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CryptoSurvivor