Several major data releases are worth paying attention to at the start of January. This week, the US will publish non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data, which directly influence the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. If the data shows surprising growth, expectations for rate cuts will be suppressed, putting pressure on the crypto market; conversely, if employment data is weak, market expectations for rate cuts will rise, which is positive for crypto assets. Meanwhile, China's statistical authorities will release CPI and PPI data. If these indicators decline or show downward trends, it often suggests that China may increase stimulus efforts, which can boost the entire risk asset sector.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and speeches by Federal Reserve officials are also worth close monitoring. If consumer confidence strengthens or Fed officials start hawkish rhetoric, the crypto market may face downward pressure; the opposite scenario would naturally be favorable for the market.

In mid-January, several key dates are critical. On the 13th, US CPI and core CPI data are central events. If inflation remains sticky and cooling is not evident, the timetable for rate cuts will be pushed back, making it difficult for crypto markets. However, if inflation data shows signs of cooling, rising expectations for rate cuts could energize the crypto market. On the 14th, China's trade data will be released. If exports rebound, indicating improving global demand, it is a positive signal for risk assets including crypto; weak export data may cause concerns about insufficient economic recovery.

On the 15th, UK GDP and Eurozone industrial output data will determine market risk appetite in Europe. Positive data can boost overall market sentiment and benefit crypto; signs of recession, however, could trigger risk aversion and put pressure on crypto assets. On the 16th, US industrial production and Germany's final inflation data will be released consecutively. If US industrial output rebounds and German inflation continues to decline, risk appetite may increase, potentially benefiting crypto; the opposite scenario would suppress market sentiment.

Another uncertainty is the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs imposed during Trump's presidency, which carries high uncertainty. Whether tariffs are maintained or relaxed, market volatility could be triggered, and expectations of escalating trade tensions are generally unfavorable for risk assets. Lastly, during Q1, the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting. Signals of rate cuts will directly boost the crypto market, but if rates are maintained or hawkish signals are released, crypto may face pressure.