XRP: From $2.13 to $2.23 - Is this the "decisive meeting point"?

Market Outlook 2025 and Factors Impacting XRP

2025 is a critical period for cryptocurrencies as macro factors such as global monetary policies, interest rate fluctuations, and risk sentiment continue to change. Bitcoin still maintains its leading role; whenever BTC moves, altcoins like XRP tend to follow closely.

Currently, XRP is trading around $2.13 (24h +0.14%), but the $0.10 gap to the $2.23 level is not insignificant — this is the technical threshold the market is waiting for.

It is important for investors to monitor both technical and macro factors. A breakout combined with favorable monetary policy developments will create a more sustainable momentum compared to a break in a tightening market environment.

Current Price Structure: What Do the Numbers Indicate?

Looking at the short-term chart, XRP shows multiple lower lows (lower low) with downward trend lines still acting as strong resistance. However, not all is bad news — selling pressure is gradually weakening rather than exploding, a common characteristic during accumulation phases.

Previous recovery attempts were halted by selling pressure, but the rate of decline in this selling is a positive sign. Comparing recent lows, the candlestick clusters indicate XRP is no longer falling freely — the market is “holding” the price rather than “fearing” to continue selling.

Momentum and Divergence: Hidden Signals in Candlestick Data

Analyzing momentum indicators reveals an interesting picture: bearish momentum is weakening, while rebounds are occurring more quickly. This suggests downward pressure is diminishing.

What does positive divergence between price and momentum indicate? It means the price is hitting lows, but momentum is not following the previous lows — a potential precursor to a reversal. If a catalyst (news, positive capital flows) appears, the market could be ready to change direction.

However, a limitation to note is that the overall structure has not yet formed a confirmed bottom — this remains a “waiting for confirmation” state.

Why is the $2.23 level so important?

$2.23 is not a random number. It marks the boundary between the central zone and resistance of the downtrend structure — in other words, the “threshold” between a downtrend and a potential reversal.

Is it easy to go from $2.13 to $2.23?

No, but if XRP breaks this zone and closes above it with supporting volume, it will be a significant technical signal, opening the possibility for a recovery to higher levels.

If successful: The probability of regaining bullish momentum will increase significantly, and XRP could see a broader recovery extension.

If failed: XRP still faces risks of continuing to fluctuate within the downtrend or accumulating at low levels, with further declines possible if downward trend lines continue to exert resistance.

Market Approach Strategy: Necessary Steps

Given the current structure, investors should adopt clear risk management strategies:

1. Conditional Entry Points

Instead of “all-in” at once, wait for XRP to break and close decisively above $2.23 with confirmation volume before acting.

2. Scale-in (divide orders into parts): What does this mean?

Scaling in means executing purchases in multiple stages rather than a single order. For example: if you plan to buy 1,000 XRP, split it into 3-4 purchases at different price levels. The benefit is reducing timing risk, avoiding “buying at the top,” and optimizing average entry price.

Example scale-in plan for XRP:

• Buy 300 XRP when breaking above $2.23
• Buy 350 XRP if it continues up to $2.35
• Buy 350 XRP if it continues up to $2.50

3. Use clear stop-loss levels

Set stop-loss below key support levels (e.g., $2.10) to limit risk if the structure deteriorates further. This helps protect capital if the market moves against expectations.

4. Monitor trading volume

An increase in volume accompanying a breakout is a more reliable signal than a breakout on low volume (fake breakout).

5. Confirm on multiple timeframes

Before opening a large position, confirm the trend on the daily chart, then act on shorter timeframes.

Portfolio Management and Other Cryptos

Investors should consider the proportion of XRP in their overall portfolio, adjusting based on personal risk tolerance and macro outlook. Avoid overexposure to a single scenario before the technical structure confirms. Diversify your holdings instead of “all-in” on XRP.

Risks to Watch

Breakout failure: Price may test the $2.23 resistance multiple times and get rejected.

Adverse macro news: Changes in monetary policy or market-wide selling pressure could eliminate any recovery momentum.

Low liquidity at critical moments: Low volume when attempting to break resistance often leads to false breakouts, followed by trap moves (bull trap) causing investors to cut losses.

Summary

XRP remains in a weak technical structure, but it is not “doomed.” Signs of decreasing selling pressure and positive momentum divergence suggest the market is transitioning from “fear” to “waiting for confirmation.”

The $2.23 level will be the “decisive point” between further decline and entering a recovery phase. Only if XRP breaks and sustains above this zone with supporting volume will the technical outlook become more optimistic.

In the 2025 context, investors should combine technical analysis with macro factors and strict risk management. Waiting for confirmation rather than acting impulsively will help minimize risks and maximize opportunities as the market moves into a positive trend.