Is ETH about to enter the accumulation phase? On-chain data reveals the market is turning around

Sudden Dissipation of Selling Pressure: What Could This Mean

Ethereum on major exchanges shows an interesting shift—active sell volume (taker sell volume) has significantly decreased. The 30-day average has fallen to around $6.3 billion, hitting a new low since May.

This may seem insignificant, but for traders seeking to understand market rhythm, it’s a signal worth paying close attention to. This retreat by sellers often indicates that the market may be completing its distribution phase and preparing to enter an accumulation phase.

Current ETH Data Snapshot:

• 24-hour trading volume: $356 million
• 24-hour change: +0.73%

Why Focus on Active Sell Volume?

Understanding what is pressure (the essence of压力) is crucial for market prediction. Active sell volume reflects participants who are eager to offload at current prices without waiting. These sell orders usually stem from three scenarios:

First is panic selling. When major negative news hits the market, holders rush to sell at market price regardless of the price level. This behavior is especially prominent in downtrends.

Second is rational stop-loss execution. When the price hits preset stop-loss levels, a large number of orders are triggered simultaneously, creating a sell volume peak.

Third is strategic reduction by institutions or large players. They may believe the market is overvalued and gradually offload their holdings.

Now, with active sell volume shrinking to its lowest in nearly half a year, it suggests that all three types of selling are decreasing. In other words, the number of sellers eager to exit is significantly reduced.

From Distribution to Accumulation: Market Transition

The dynamics of the Ethereum market can be understood as follows:

The distribution phase (profit-taking by bulls) has passed its most intense stage. During the rise, investors who gained from the upward move rushed to take profits, causing a surge in sell volume. But now, this wave of selling has largely subsided.

The accumulation phase (bottoming and building positions) may be forming. Typically, the market at this stage shows: prices oscillate within a range, trading volume is light, retail investors are cautious, but smart money is accumulating on dips. This sets the stage for a long-term upward trend.

However, there is a key but—weakening sell volume alone is not enough to confirm that an uptrend has begun. We also need to see active buying.

Other On-Chain Signals to Watch

Before making any trading decisions, these indicators are equally important:

Active Buy Volume (Taker Buy Volume)
This is crucial for confirming genuine demand recovery. If taker buy remains subdued, even with declining sell volume, the market may remain stagnant rather than rally.

Open Interest in Derivatives
When open interest (OI) expands alongside trading volume, it often signals new capital entering the market. Conversely, a decline may indicate waning participation.

Liquidity Depth
The density of buy and sell orders at key price levels. Markets with ample liquidity are more likely to form healthy trends, while liquidity droughts can lead to sharp moves.

Whale Wallet Movements
Monitoring ETH inflows/outflows from whale addresses, especially changes in staking activity, can provide early clues about institutional actions.

Macro Context: The Complex Game of 2025

The year remains full of uncertainties:

• Monetary policy directions continue to be the core factor influencing crypto risk sentiment.
• Leverage in derivatives markets may amplify price volatility.
• Application ecosystem progress determines ETH’s long-term fundamentals.
• Regulatory updates in major jurisdictions could bring unexpected shocks.

In such an environment, market participants are becoming more cautious—fewer eager to dump, but not many rushing to buy the dip either. This delicate balance is a hallmark of the accumulation stage.

Possible Scenarios and Risks

Based on current data, several scenarios are worth monitoring:

Most likely: Sideways accumulation
ETH consolidates within a relatively narrow range, with taker sell volume remaining low, and buyers and sellers in equilibrium, until an external catalyst breaks the deadlock.

Less likely: Slow recovery
Active buy volume gradually recovers, derivatives open interest modestly expands, and with good liquidity, a gentle upward trend forms.

Risk scenario: Double bottom
Unexpected macro events (such as liquidity crises or policy shifts) cause sell volume to surge again, forcing the market to retest lows.

How Traders Should Respond

1. Strictly control leverage — even if outlook looks positive, avoid over-borrowing before confirmation.

2. Use phased entries — adopt dollar-cost averaging rather than all-in, reducing timing risk.

3. Set clear stop-loss levels — predefine maximum acceptable losses before entering.

4. Continuously monitor on-chain indicators — taker buy, open interest, liquidity are key signals for next moves.

5. Pay attention to macro event calendar — central bank meetings, economic data releases, etc., require heightened vigilance.

Summary

Ethereum’s active sell volume has fallen to its lowest in nearly half a year (30-day average of $6.3 billion), reflecting a transition from a fierce distribution phase. This is indeed a positive signal—the anxiety among sellers is easing. But to declare a new upward trend, we need to see clear strengthening of active buy volume, expansion of derivatives open interest, and improvement in on-chain liquidity.

In 2025, a year full of uncertainties, ETH’s path will still depend on continuous observation and adaptation by market participants. Investors who combine on-chain data analysis, derivatives market monitoring, and macroeconomic assessment will be better positioned to catch the market’s turning points.

Remember: the retreat of selling pressure is just the prelude; the real symphony awaits the composition of buyers.