Non-farm data releases positive signals, tariff rulings become the next market variable

【Chain Wen】U.S. stocks edged higher on Friday, with December non-farm payroll data not overturning market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for now. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariff policies.

Cayla Seder, a macro multi-asset strategist at State Street Bank, analyzed that this labor data sends a key signal—the market is no longer worried about an overheating economy. The data is strong enough to suggest that the economic fundamentals are still solid, but not so strong as to cause traders to completely change their view on the Fed’s policy path. This “lukewarm” situation instead provides a boost to the stock market.

The bigger suspense lies on the tariff front. Trump’s comprehensive tariff policy launched in April once caused market tension. Now, the Supreme Court’s ruling could be another watershed for stocks and bonds this year. If the court rules tariffs unconstitutional, corporate profit margins could improve, consumer wallets could feel less pressure, and the stock market might rebound. However, from a bond perspective, such stimulus could complicate the Fed’s rate cut plans and exacerbate government budget deficits, putting pressure on Treasuries.

For crypto traders, these macro variables are equally worth paying attention to—any shifts in U.S. stocks, bonds, and policy expectations will directly influence capital flows between different assets.