Recently, I have organized some key data and would like to share my views on the current market situation.

Here's the thing — we previously predicted that when the realized profit and loss ratio of LTHs drops to a certain threshold, their distribution actions will naturally slow down or even stop. The current situation is exactly that. Looking at on-chain data makes it clear that the realized profit and loss ratio of LTHs has already reached the lowest level in this cycle, just a little away from the breakeven line.

This position is very critical. What does it mean if it drops further? Even long-term hodlers will have to cut losses and exit, which obviously no one wants to see. Therefore, from this perspective, the distribution pressure should be nearing its bottom. The behavioral logic of long-term holders is simple — gradually realize profits when profitable, hold tightly when at a loss. We are now stuck at this critical point.