Miner miners' pressure reduces hash rate; Bitcoin fluctuates with MACD indicator signaling possible relief

Miner Miner Crisis Redefines Network Dynamics

The Bitcoin network is going through a critical period for miners, driving a contraction cycle that leaves deep marks. Recent data from VanEck reveal a 4% drop in the hash rate, the most severe decline since the first half of 2024, coinciding with a 9% retracement in the asset’s price in just one month. Realized volatility has reached levels above 45% over 30-day windows, a scenario absent since April 2025. This hostile environment forces operators with less efficient structures to shut down machines, seeking to protect their operations from economic infeasibility.

The ongoing capitulation, paradoxically, tends to ease medium-term selling pressure. With the exit of marginal agents who depend on liquidating assets to cover immediate operational costs, the continuous supply flow that limits any recovery attempts is reduced.

Energy Reallocation in China Intensifies Competition with AI

The shutdown of approximately 400,000 machines in the Xinjiang region removed about 1.3 GW of processing capacity in just 24 hours. Behind this abrupt decision is the reallocation of energy resources to data centers specialized in artificial intelligence, a segment that currently offers higher operational margins than Bitcoin mining.

Analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush estimate that up to 10% of the global hash rate faces the risk of permanent deactivation. This reorganization is likely to significantly increase concentration among operators with access to cheap energy sources and world-class infrastructure, establishing an even more insurmountable entry barrier for new entrants.

Cost Compression Separates Winners from Losers

The Bitmain S19 XP model exemplifies this trend well. The economic break-even point for electricity dropped from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh over a year—a brutal reduction of 36%. Operations unable to keep pace with this cost compression face increasing risks of becoming financially unviable.

Paradoxically, at least 13 nations already incorporate some level of state support for their mining operations, motivated by energy or monetary sovereignty objectives. This geographic fragmentation of processing power reflects a transitioning market.

Bitcoin Oscillates in a Persistent Resistance Zone

Currently trading around US$ 92,520, Bitcoin remains locked in a narrow trading range, repeatedly testing the critical resistance of US$ 90,000 without sustainably breaking through. The most recent breakout attempt retreated, leaving the asset at around US$ 87,700 during Wall Street open.

This technical level concentrates substantial liquidity and clustered sell orders, creating a dynamic barrier to more aggressive directional moves. The unstable balance between buyers and sellers keeps the market trapped in narrow oscillations, reflecting a lack of clear direction. With each upward impulse, a wave of sales pushes the price back to the sideways range.

Technical Data Shows Relief from Selling Pressure

The four-hour chart shows recurring rejections at the simple moving averages (SMA) and exponential (EMA) of 200 periods, which act as dynamic resistance delimiting the medium-term control zone. As long as the price remains below these averages, the probability of continued sideways movement or testing lower supports remains high.

However, momentum indicators are beginning to paint a different picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the three-day chart registers higher lows, while the price forms progressively lower lows. This classic bullish divergence, often preceded by significant reversals in previous cycles, suggests weakening of selling pressure. The MACD indicator complements this reading, showing constructive signals that point to a possible exhaustion of the bearish phase.

Short Positions Amplify Volatility in Low Liquidity Environment

Large institutional investors have accumulated short positions in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana totaling over US$ 250 million. This defensive strategy reflects a desire to protect against further corrections, not necessarily an aggressive bet against the market.

The impact is significantly amplified in a low liquidity environment. Smaller operators can move prices disproportionately. With the upcoming holiday season, many participants have reduced their exposure to safeguard accumulated gains, removing depth from order books and increasing market sensitivity to smaller-volume operations.

Disconnection from Gold Opens Space for Technical Compression

While gold and silver hit all-time highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin does not follow the same capital flow. This decoupling contradicts historical patterns of positive correlation during risk-off periods. With the precious metal approaching US$ 4,500 per ounce, the BTC/XAU pair indicates a relative loss of value for the crypto asset, suggesting a possible technical compression that could establish a more solid base.

Recovery History Offers Structural Hope

Historically, hash rate contractions have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. When the hash rate remained contracted over 90-day windows, the average return in six months reached 72%. This pattern suggests that miner capitulation often coincides with the exhaustion of structural selling pressures, opening space for stronger recoveries.

QCP Capital warns that liquidity tends to remain compressed during the Christmas week, potentially amplifying both continuation moves and abrupt reactions to macroeconomic data. The market now awaits catalysts that confirm the constructive technical signals seen in the MACD indicator and divergences in the RSI, creating conditions for a more consistent influx of buying capital.