US GDP exceeds expectations, soaring 4.3%! S&P 500 hits new highs again, the dollar weakens below 98, and crude oil surprises with three consecutive gains.

Economic Growth Surpasses Expectations, Market Sentiment Turns Optimistic

The US Q3 economic performance has caught investors’ attention — the initial quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ( increased by 4.3%, far exceeding the market forecast of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years. Behind this impressive data is a strong performance in household consumption expenditure. Meanwhile, data center investments rose to record levels, with business investments increasing by 2.8%, and the booming tech industry is becoming a new engine for economic growth.

The inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve — the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index ) rose by 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, in line with market expectations. The initial reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index ( increased by 2.8%, indicating that inflationary pressures are gradually easing, leaving room for future policy adjustments.

Consumer Confidence Falls for Five Consecutive Months, Economic Concerns Emerge

However, behind the shiny GDP figures, there are hidden concerns on the consumption side. The US Consumer Confidence Index has declined for the fifth consecutive month, dropping 3.8 points to 89.1 in December, well below economists’ forecast of 91. The current assessment index of consumers’ views on business and employment markets plummeted 9.5 points to 116.8, the lowest since February 2021.

People are shifting towards affordable entertainment and essential spending, with holiday travel intentions weakening further. More worryingly, consumer expectations for purchasing new cars continue to decline, while plans to buy used cars are increasing. These subtle changes suggest that US households are preparing in advance for potential economic shocks.

Policy Makers Speak Differently, Fed Faces Pressure

Trump stated that anyone who disagrees with him on monetary policy cannot serve as Federal Reserve Chair. He pointed out that markets tend to fall whenever good news appears because people worry about rising interest rates. Trump hopes the new Chair will lower rates when the market performs well, rather than unjustifiably destroying the upward trend. He emphasized that a one-year economic growth could drive GDP up by 10 to 20 percentage points.

Treasury Secretary Bissett suggested that the Fed, after inflation gradually falls back and re-anchors at 2%, should change its fixed 2% inflation target to a range (such as 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3%) to enhance policy flexibility. He finds the central bank’s practice of targeting inflation to a precise decimal point absurd.

White House National Economic Council Director Hassett criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates fast enough. He emphasized that the US lags far behind other central banks globally in rate cuts. He attributes the 1.5% GDP growth in Q3 to Trump’s tariffs reducing the trade deficit, and believes the booming AI industry is driving economic growth and exerting downward pressure on inflation.

Stock Markets Rise Across the Board, Tech Stocks Lead Gains

Boosted by strong economic data, the three major US stock indices all advanced. The Dow Jones rose by 0.16%; the S&P 500 increased by 0.46%, reaching a new all-time closing high; the Nasdaq gained 0.57%. The tech sector performed especially well, with Nvidia soaring 3.01%, reaching the highest level since November 17, and its market cap re-entered the $4.6 trillion range. Amazon climbed 1.6%, and Alphabet rebounded by 1.5%.

European stocks showed mixed performance, with the UK up 0.24%, Germany up 0.23%, and France slightly down 0.21%.

Commodities Rise Together, Oil Hits Three-Day High, Gold Reaches Record High

Commodity markets also saw positive news. WTI crude oil rose for the third consecutive day, reclaiming the $58.0 per barrel level, up 0.9%. Notably, LME copper futures broke through the $12,000 per ton mark for the first time in history, reflecting market optimism about the global economic recovery.

Gold continued its strong momentum, hitting a record high with a 0.9% increase, priced at $4,483.9 per ounce. It is noteworthy that 3-gram gold prices also rose, indicating sustained investor demand for safe-haven assets. Silver also reached new highs.

Dollar Weakens, Forex Market Volatility Intensifies

The US dollar index fell 0.37% to 97.88, breaking below 98.0 for the first time in two and a half months. USD/JPY declined by 0.51%, while EUR/USD rose by 0.27%. The dollar’s weakness reflects market expectations about the Fed’s future policy — amid global central banks cutting rates, the market is reassessing the attractiveness of the dollar.

Cryptocurrency Market Volatility, Bitcoin and Ethereum Diverge

The crypto market shows divergence. Bitcoin declined 1.27% in 24 hours, trading at $87,407, continuing its recent correction. Ethereum, on the other hand, rose against the trend, up 2.45% in 24 hours, trading at $3,250, indicating emerging structural opportunities in the market. (Latest data shows Bitcoin at $92,520, down 1.13% in 24 hours; Ethereum at $3,250, up 2.45% in 24 hours)

Hong Kong Night Market Futures Slightly Higher

Hang Seng Index night futures closed at 25,818 points, up 44 points from yesterday’s close of 25,774. The China Enterprises Index night futures also rose, with a premium of 13 points over yesterday.

Bond Market Calm, 10-Year Treasury Yields Steady

The US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield remains around 4.16%, unchanged from the previous trading day, reflecting market caution on future policy directions.

International Trade Landscape Changes, Major Risks Emerge

The Bank of Canada released the December monetary policy meeting summary, indicating uncertainty about whether the next rate decision will be a cut or a hike. The bank noted that recent GDP fluctuations highlight the difficulty in judging the economy’s potential trend, especially with the upcoming review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) next year, which poses significant risks. Uncertainty could pressure business investments.

The US Trade Representative’s Office (USTR) published nearly a year’s investigation results on China’s semiconductor industry, deeming tariffs on Chinese chips appropriate. The initial tariff level is 0%, to be increased to a separately announced rate on June 23, 2027, after 18 months. This move is seen as respecting the US-China trade truce, but tariffs could be reintroduced if relations worsen.

Former Bank of Japan official Seiji Ando warned that due to market concerns over Japan’s expansionary fiscal policies, the yen may further depreciate, and bond yields could continue rising. He expects the Bank of Japan to eventually raise interest rates to 1.5%, with the next hike possibly in July next year.

Technology and Security Concerns Coexist

Amazon’s autonomous driving company Zoox will recall 332 vehicles in the US due to software errors in its autonomous driving system. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) stated that these vehicles might cross yellow center lines at intersections or nearby roads, entering oncoming lanes or stopping in front of oncoming vehicles, increasing collision risks. The company has issued free updates to the autonomous driving software.

Meanwhile, several authors, including Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist John Carrelu, have filed copyright lawsuits against six AI companies—Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, Meta, xAI, and Perplexity—accusing them of deliberate theft, using books to develop products worth billions of dollars. The authors seek damages, with each infringement potentially liable for up to $150,000.

Market Outlook and Risk Warnings

Despite the GDP growth exceeding expectations, the five consecutive declines in consumer confidence, rising global trade uncertainties, and disagreements over central bank policy targets all signal the complexity of future economic prospects. US markets will close early on Wednesday and be closed on Thursday, providing investors an opportunity to adjust portfolios and prepare for market volatility in the new year.