The Pressure of US$ 250 Million: Why Bitcoin Remains Stuck in the Resistance Zone

Bitcoin started this week in a defensive position, oscillating around US$ 92,540 with a 1.18% decline in the last 24 hours, remaining distant from the psychological barrier of US$ 90,000 that has been functioning as an invisible wall for weeks. Institutional investors are accumulating short positions that, when combined with Ether and Solana, reach an impressive US$ 250 million, signaling caution amid the macroeconomic scenario. Judging by the sequence of rejections and tightening liquidity, we are facing a market in tactical compression.

The Technical Picture: Rejection and Volatility Without Direction

The inability to break through the US$ 90,000 zone is no coincidence. Large sell volumes are positioned exactly at this level, creating a barrier that repels attempts to advance. At the same time, Bitcoin has failed to keep pace with the gold rally, which is approaching US$ 4,500 per ounce at all-time highs. This divergence between the two assets points to a possible relative loss of the crypto asset compared to precious metals.

On the four-hour chart, the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages continue to reject the price repeatedly. As long as Bitcoin remains below these levels, the consistent bullish structure remains compromised. Analysts suggest that each attempt to break out is accompanied by a cascade of sales, highlighting the protective behavior of participants seeking to secure profits before the year-end.

The reduced depth of order books amplifies even moderate-sized operations, creating abrupt volatility spikes. With the holiday season approaching, many traders have withdrawn capital from the market to preserve gains, intensifying liquidity scarcity and making movements more unpredictable.

Divergent Signals in Momentum: A Clue for Reversal?

Despite the visible weakness in price, certain technical indicators are beginning to flash constructive signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the three-day chart registers progressively higher lows, while the price forms lower lows — a classic bullish divergence that in previous cycles preceded significant recovery movements.

The MACD also shows weakening of bearish pressure, suggesting that the selling intensity is losing strength, even though the price has not yet responded strongly. This disconnect between the technical signal and price action often indicates an imminent regime change. However, analysts warn that divergences only materialize into real movement when confirmed by additional factors — whether by volume, external catalysts, or changes in risk appetite.

The Cascade Effect: Institutional Positions and Hedge Strategy

The US$ 250 million in open short positions held by large investors should not be interpreted as aggressive directional bets against the market. It is, in fact, a defensive asset protection operation. In a depressed liquidity environment, however, the impact of these positions is amplified: any abrupt movement can trigger cascading liquidations that feed even greater volatility.

This dynamic reinforces the current deadlock. Buyers are reluctant to increase exposure amid the risk of further correction, while sellers maintain firm orders at higher levels. The result is a market stuck in a narrow sideways range, testing lower supports in search of absorption of supply that does not materialize.

The Silent Miner Crisis: Capitulation in Xinjiang

On a fundamental level, the Bitcoin network is experiencing a compression phase for miners. The hash rate has fallen by 4% — the sharpest decline since the first half of 2024 — while the price has retreated 9% this month. The scenario became even more challenging with the shutdown of approximately 400,000 mining machines in China’s Xinjiang province, removing about 1.3 GW of capacity in just 24 hours.

The reason? Reallocation of energy to artificial intelligence data centers, a sector offering higher operational margins than cryptocurrency mining. This forced migration of resources could result in a permanent loss of up to 10% of the global hash rate, consolidating mining in the hands of operators with access to cheaper energy and more robust infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the 30-day realized volatility has exceeded 45%, a level not seen since April 2025. This combination of extreme oscillation and revenue compression forces less efficient miners to shut down equipment to avoid structural losses. Although painful in the short term, this process reduces structural selling pressure by eliminating marginal agents who need to liquidate assets to cover costs.

Cost Compression and the Technical Barrier of Profitability

For the industry benchmark Bitmain S19 XP, the break-even point for electricity costs has fallen from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in one year — a 36% compression. Operations that do not keep pace with this cost reduction face increasingly questionable viability.

Despite immediate challenges, at least 13 countries are already participating in mining with some level of state support, seeking energy or monetary sovereignty. This geographic diversification provides some resilience to the ecosystem.

The Historical Precedent: Capitulation Precedes Recovery

Bitcoin’s history offers an important perspective: in 65% of historical cases, drops in hash rate were followed by positive returns within 90 days. During periods of hash contraction with a 90-day window, the average return over six months reached 72%.

These numbers suggest that the current miner capitulation process, no matter how painful it seems, often coincides with the exhaustion of selling pressure and the establishment of new technical bases for upward movements. The stall above US$ 90,000 may be precisely marking this transition point, where structural weakness sets the stage for recovery.

While waiting for a more consistent influx of buying capital, the key remains the breakout with significant volume of the 200-period moving average resistance. Until then, Bitcoin remains confined in its sideways range, testing lower thresholds in search of demand to absorb the accumulated supply.