Global Market Turmoil: Yen Depreciation Crisis Worsens, US Stocks Lead Rebound, Bitcoin and Silver Diverge

Global financial markets continue to unfold complex narratives. The Bank of Japan’s aggressive rate hike decision failed to effectively support the yen, instead triggering deep concerns in the market about excessive exchange rate volatility. Meanwhile, the three major US stock indices collectively rose, silver in the commodity market hit a record high, and the crypto market showed divergence, with Bitcoin pulling back.

Yen Depreciation Dilemma: Regulatory Authorities Issue Warnings Again

Japanese Finance Minister Shōzō Akiyama issued a clear warning over the weekend, pointing out that the yen has sharply depreciated after the central bank’s rate hike, and Japan will take necessary measures to address excessive exchange rate fluctuations. She emphasized that the “one-sided, violent fluctuations” observed in recent hours have caused concern among regulators, and Japan will take appropriate actions based on the September US-Japan joint statement to curb speculative behavior.

USD/JPY surged 1.39%, approaching the 158.0 level. Notably, after the BOJ’s 25 basis point rate hike, the 10-year government bond yield rose above 2%, reaching a new high since 1999. This phenomenon reflects growing expectations and pressure for future rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. For high-leverage global macro hedge funds, the attractiveness of the yen as a financing currency has significantly diminished.

US Stocks Rebound, Tech Stocks Lead Gains

Last Friday, US stocks experienced “quadruple witching,” with market risk appetite improving, and the VIX fear index falling 11.57%. The three major indices generally rose, with the Dow up 0.38%, the S&P 500 up 0.88%, and the Nasdaq up 1.31%. The China Golden Dragon Index also rebounded 0.86%.

Tech stocks performed notably well, with Oracle rising 6.6%, NVIDIA and Broadcom up 3.9% and 3.2% respectively, with NVIDIA becoming the strongest component of the Dow. In contrast, Nike’s stock plunged 10.5% due to sluggish business in China. European markets also rose across the board, with the FTSE 100 up 0.61%, Germany’s DAX 30 up 0.37%, and France’s CAC 40 up 0.01%.

Commodity Markets: Silver Breaks 67.0, Gold Stabilizes

Driven by investment demand and supply tightness, silver prices soared to a record high, breaking through 67.0 USD. Gold closed for the second consecutive day with a doji star, up 0.14%, at 4,338.6 USD per ounce. In energy, WTI crude oil rose 1.14%, to 56.5 USD per barrel.

The US 10-year Treasury yield increased 3 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, sensitive to interest rate changes, rose 3.2 basis points to 3.492%. Additionally, France’s 30-year government bond yield rose to 4.525%, the highest since 2009, amid failed negotiations on the 2026 budget.

Crypto Asset Divergence: Bitcoin Pulls Back, Ethereum Rises

The crypto market shows divergence. Bitcoin fell 0.67% in 24 hours, currently at 93.28K USD, influenced by global risk appetite adjustments. In contrast, Ethereum performed relatively resilient, rising 2.38% in 24 hours, currently at 3.26K USD, reflecting ongoing market optimism about Ethereum’s ecosystem development.

In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index night session futures closed at 25,843 points, up 118 points, surpassing yesterday’s close of 25,690 by 152 points, with a volume of 11,984 contracts. The China Enterprises Index night session futures closed at 8,958 points, up 57 points from yesterday’s close.

Federal Reserve Policy Stance Becomes More Cautious

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams( stated that the Fed currently sees no urgency to further adjust interest rates, as recent employment and inflation data have nearly unchanged expectations. He personally believes there is no need to rush to cut rates further at this time, hoping to see inflation return to 2% without unnecessary damage to the labor market.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack) also holds a similar view, believing that after three consecutive rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, there is no need to adjust rates in the coming months, at least until spring, maintaining the current target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. She is more concerned about rising inflation risks and advocates maintaining the current policy stance.

US inflation in November slowed to a four-year low, but official data was distorted due to government shutdowns. Williams noted that core inflation continues to approach the 2% target, and the labor market is gradually cooling.

US Consumer Confidence Weakens, Spending Concerns Persist

The University of Michigan’s final December consumer sentiment index rose 1.9 points to 52.9, below the expected 53.5. Despite some signs of improvement at year-end, consumer confidence remains nearly 30% lower than the same period last year. Joanne Hsu, the survey director, said that economic conditions remain the primary concern for consumers.

The current conditions index fell to a historic low of 50.4, while the expectations index rose to a four-month high. Consumers’ views on the current situation of purchasing big-ticket items have deteriorated to historic lows, reflecting ongoing concerns about affordability.

US Space Policy Shift: Moon Priority, Mars Postponed

US President Trump confirmed that the US will send astronauts back to the Moon as soon as possible, aiming to land on the Moon by 2028 and establish a lunar base, with the ultimate Mars mission temporarily postponed. The comprehensive executive order issued by Trump requires the US to send humans back to the Moon before 2028 and to establish initial elements of a permanent lunar outpost by 2030, while also confirming plans to deploy nuclear reactors on the Moon and in orbit.

This move aims to accelerate the US’s pace to surpass China, which plans to send astronauts to the Moon and establish a base by 2030. NASA’s new administrator, billionaire Jared Isaacman(, has sworn in and will push forward with the Artemis) program’s specific implementation.

Global Corporate Developments

Upgraded Export Controls on AI Chips

US House Republicans are calling for congressional regulation of AI chip exports similar to military sales. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast( proposed the “Artificial Intelligence Regulation Act,” requiring notification to Congress for AI chip sales to hostile countries. Any processor with performance equal to or higher than NVIDIA’s H200 will be subject to regulation, with H200’s performance approximately six times that of H20.

ByteDance’s Profits Hit Record High

Mainland social media giant and TikTok parent company ByteDance is expected to achieve approximately $50 billion in profit in 2024, a new record. The company has already accumulated about $40 billion in net profit in the first three quarters of this year, exceeding internal expectations. If achieved, ByteDance’s profit will approach the estimated $60 billion of US competitor Meta this year.

According to internal memos, ByteDance has signed binding agreements to spin off TikTok’s US operations into a joint venture with US investors, including Oracle Holdings, to ensure platform operation and reduce Chinese company control. Chinese regulators have yet to comment on whether they will approve the deal.

Market sentiment continues to evolve; global investors should closely monitor yen fluctuations, Federal Reserve policy directions, and the latest developments in US geopolitical competition.